There's an article out today written by political "guru" Charlie Cook. In the piece, Cook argues that the recent polls that show Donald Trump tied with or slightly ahead of Hillary Clinton don't really mean that Trump is doing all that well. According to Cook, the Republican party wounds have healed and the base has consolidated behind Trump while the same thing has yet to happen among the Democrats. Once that consolidation takes place, says Cook, Hillary will move to something like a 7% lead over Trump.
When I read this article, I started to laugh out loud. I mean, Charlie Cook has a long track record as a political pundit/prophet, but he hasn't done particularly well this year. At the start of the campaign he loudly proclaimed that polls would be useless in predicting the outcome of the Republican nomination fight. Of course, about the time Cook made that prediction, Donald Trump took the lead in the polls and held that position for nearly all of the remainder of the primary season. So Trump led the polls and won even though Cook promised us that the polls would be meaningless.
A few months later, when we were just about a month ahead of the first caucus in Iowa, Cook explained once again what would happen in the Republican nomination fight. Here's how he put it:
"Republican voters in populous left-leaning 'blue zone' states have a disproportionate influence on the nominating process. These voters tend to give the nod to a more moderate, electable choice".
Cook then went on to predict that Trump would surely lose. Once again, Cook was completely wrong.
The truth is that if one judges from his recent track record, Charlie Cook doesn't have a clue what is going on. Maybe the Democrats will coalesce around Hillary in the way that moths are drawn to a bug zapper. Maybe the Sanders' supporters will stay home or even support Trump. Maybe Bernie will run as an independent after the rigged Democrat convention takes place. Maybe Bill Kristol will disclose that some "big name Republican" is going to run as an independent. (Okay, that's ridiculous, but I had to say it.) Maybe Trump will soar to a huge lead over Hillary. Charlie Cook surely doesn't know (although he can be fairly sure that Kristol's big name will never appear.)
When I read this article, I started to laugh out loud. I mean, Charlie Cook has a long track record as a political pundit/prophet, but he hasn't done particularly well this year. At the start of the campaign he loudly proclaimed that polls would be useless in predicting the outcome of the Republican nomination fight. Of course, about the time Cook made that prediction, Donald Trump took the lead in the polls and held that position for nearly all of the remainder of the primary season. So Trump led the polls and won even though Cook promised us that the polls would be meaningless.
A few months later, when we were just about a month ahead of the first caucus in Iowa, Cook explained once again what would happen in the Republican nomination fight. Here's how he put it:
"Republican voters in populous left-leaning 'blue zone' states have a disproportionate influence on the nominating process. These voters tend to give the nod to a more moderate, electable choice".
Cook then went on to predict that Trump would surely lose. Once again, Cook was completely wrong.
The truth is that if one judges from his recent track record, Charlie Cook doesn't have a clue what is going on. Maybe the Democrats will coalesce around Hillary in the way that moths are drawn to a bug zapper. Maybe the Sanders' supporters will stay home or even support Trump. Maybe Bernie will run as an independent after the rigged Democrat convention takes place. Maybe Bill Kristol will disclose that some "big name Republican" is going to run as an independent. (Okay, that's ridiculous, but I had to say it.) Maybe Trump will soar to a huge lead over Hillary. Charlie Cook surely doesn't know (although he can be fairly sure that Kristol's big name will never appear.)
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