For much of the last two months, we heard Donald Trump complain that the GOP nominating process was rigged against him. It was an effective campaign theme, even though it was not accurate. Ted Cruz went quickly from the man who won Wisconsin in a big upset to the insider who was part of the establishment trying to deny Trump the nomination. Obviously, the system was not rigged because Trump won the fight.
Now, the focus on rigged contests has moved to the other side. Bernie Sanders keeps winning primaries, but he is way far behind Hillary Clinton in numbers of delegates because the large number of unelected superdelegates have chosen Hillary. Indeed, the slant of the superdelegates towards Hillary is so great that as of now, Sanders would need to win roughly 58% of the elected delegates across all the country to overcome his deficit among superdelegates. In short, the Democrat party insiders have a rigged system that let's them pick the nominee unless on candidate crushes all opposition. The funny thing is that Sanders would probably have done better to have stayed out of the rigged Democrat system and just run as an independent. After all, Sanders isn't really a Democrat; he was elected to the senate as an independent.
Is it too late for Bernie to change his mind now and run as a third party? Not really, if he acts quickly. Sure, there are some states like Texas which have early filing deadlines and a few others that bar a candidate from running in the party primary and as an independent, but none of those are states Bernie would be likely to carry. Sanders could still easily get on the ballot in about 45 states.
Could Bernie actually win as an independent? That, of course, would be much harder than just getting on the ballot, but the answer is yes. Bernie could put together a group of states like New York, California, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, and much of New England, the mid-Atlantic, and Midwest. If he also managed to win in the Plains and the West, he could take the White House. I would give him a 5-8% chance of winning, but that is better than the zero percent chance he has with the rigged Democrat system. Sanders must realize that in a general election, he could supplant Hillary if he could run ahead of her in a few polls. He may well take the shot.
Now, the focus on rigged contests has moved to the other side. Bernie Sanders keeps winning primaries, but he is way far behind Hillary Clinton in numbers of delegates because the large number of unelected superdelegates have chosen Hillary. Indeed, the slant of the superdelegates towards Hillary is so great that as of now, Sanders would need to win roughly 58% of the elected delegates across all the country to overcome his deficit among superdelegates. In short, the Democrat party insiders have a rigged system that let's them pick the nominee unless on candidate crushes all opposition. The funny thing is that Sanders would probably have done better to have stayed out of the rigged Democrat system and just run as an independent. After all, Sanders isn't really a Democrat; he was elected to the senate as an independent.
Is it too late for Bernie to change his mind now and run as a third party? Not really, if he acts quickly. Sure, there are some states like Texas which have early filing deadlines and a few others that bar a candidate from running in the party primary and as an independent, but none of those are states Bernie would be likely to carry. Sanders could still easily get on the ballot in about 45 states.
Could Bernie actually win as an independent? That, of course, would be much harder than just getting on the ballot, but the answer is yes. Bernie could put together a group of states like New York, California, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, and much of New England, the mid-Atlantic, and Midwest. If he also managed to win in the Plains and the West, he could take the White House. I would give him a 5-8% chance of winning, but that is better than the zero percent chance he has with the rigged Democrat system. Sanders must realize that in a general election, he could supplant Hillary if he could run ahead of her in a few polls. He may well take the shot.
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