Like many, I have been focused on the Iranian incursion into Israeli airspace and the strong Israeli response in Syria. There was, however, another big development last Friday that should not go unnoticed. The Secretary of Defense warned the Syrians that they had better not use chemical weapons again. Secretary Mattis pointed out what happened the last time the Assad forces used those weapons, a reference to the cruise missile attack that destroyed 20% of Syria's air force last March. Mattis also said that there were reports that the Assad forces had started using sarin gas again in the fighting in Syria, but that the USA did not have proof YET of that use.
Of all the statements on the subject of chemical weapons one could get from an American Secretary of Defense, this was a an extremely strong one. The key word for Assad is "yet". It means that if the USA gets proof that Assad used sarin gas, there still may be major consequences for him and his regime. Now, I'm sure that Assad is not sitting in Damascus shaking with fear. After all, he lives in a region where governments and leaders regularly make threats which they never carry out. They also lie with regularity. Just look at the statement from the Assad regime that its air defenses now give it back control of the skies over Syria; the claim is based on the fact that Israel lost a fighter jet to air defense missiles on Saturday, the first Israeli jet shot down since 1982. The Syrians, however, launched over 50 missiles at the waves of Israeli jets that struck Syrian and Iranian targets on that day. The loss of one plane hardly qualifies as Syria taking back control of the skies. Indeed, one wonders how many anti-aircraft missiles the Syrians even possess. They can't often shoot 50 without running out quickly.
But back to the chemical weapons. If as is quite possible, Assad decides that the Russians will protect him and continues to use chemical weapons, he will be making a major mistake. President Trump has already demonstrated that the USA will not sit by as Assad (or anyone else) uses nerve gas to attack civilians. It would not take much for America to strike at Syrian bases and inflict major damage on the Assad forces. Russia will not go to war with the USA to protect the use of chemical weapons by its ally.
Of all the statements on the subject of chemical weapons one could get from an American Secretary of Defense, this was a an extremely strong one. The key word for Assad is "yet". It means that if the USA gets proof that Assad used sarin gas, there still may be major consequences for him and his regime. Now, I'm sure that Assad is not sitting in Damascus shaking with fear. After all, he lives in a region where governments and leaders regularly make threats which they never carry out. They also lie with regularity. Just look at the statement from the Assad regime that its air defenses now give it back control of the skies over Syria; the claim is based on the fact that Israel lost a fighter jet to air defense missiles on Saturday, the first Israeli jet shot down since 1982. The Syrians, however, launched over 50 missiles at the waves of Israeli jets that struck Syrian and Iranian targets on that day. The loss of one plane hardly qualifies as Syria taking back control of the skies. Indeed, one wonders how many anti-aircraft missiles the Syrians even possess. They can't often shoot 50 without running out quickly.
But back to the chemical weapons. If as is quite possible, Assad decides that the Russians will protect him and continues to use chemical weapons, he will be making a major mistake. President Trump has already demonstrated that the USA will not sit by as Assad (or anyone else) uses nerve gas to attack civilians. It would not take much for America to strike at Syrian bases and inflict major damage on the Assad forces. Russia will not go to war with the USA to protect the use of chemical weapons by its ally.
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