After the Iranian incursion into Israeli airspace and the Israeli response last weekend, it is worth taking a closer look at the result of all that action:
1. The Israelis inflicted serious damage on the Syrian air defense system. I've heard it reported on TV that Israel actually destroyed about 50% of Syrian air defenses in the southwestern quadrant of that country. That seems like a very high figure, and it is not confirmed elsewhere. Nevertheless, there is no doubt that Syria fired over 50 anti-aircraft missiles and had at least six missile batteries in the region destroyed (together with the missiles stored there). That well might be half of the Syrian air defense assets in the region.
2. The Israelis lost a jet fighter. In any normal battle, that would not be much of a loss, but this was Syria and Iran against the Israeli Air Force. Israel has not lost a plane in conflict since 1982. The result shows that the new Russian air defense missiles that the Syrians fired at least have the ability to hit Israeli jets. From a propaganda standpoint, the Syrians are thrilled that they finally downed a jet.
3. The basic cause of the fighting, the Iranian incursion into Israeli airspace, has not changed. We do not know if Iran will soon try to send another armed drone into Israel or if the heavy losses inflicted on Syrian and some Iranian forces will dissuade the Iranians from acting again.
We're back at a wait and see mode. One thing is certain though: this could be a step towards a much larger war. Let's hope not.
1. The Israelis inflicted serious damage on the Syrian air defense system. I've heard it reported on TV that Israel actually destroyed about 50% of Syrian air defenses in the southwestern quadrant of that country. That seems like a very high figure, and it is not confirmed elsewhere. Nevertheless, there is no doubt that Syria fired over 50 anti-aircraft missiles and had at least six missile batteries in the region destroyed (together with the missiles stored there). That well might be half of the Syrian air defense assets in the region.
2. The Israelis lost a jet fighter. In any normal battle, that would not be much of a loss, but this was Syria and Iran against the Israeli Air Force. Israel has not lost a plane in conflict since 1982. The result shows that the new Russian air defense missiles that the Syrians fired at least have the ability to hit Israeli jets. From a propaganda standpoint, the Syrians are thrilled that they finally downed a jet.
3. The basic cause of the fighting, the Iranian incursion into Israeli airspace, has not changed. We do not know if Iran will soon try to send another armed drone into Israel or if the heavy losses inflicted on Syrian and some Iranian forces will dissuade the Iranians from acting again.
We're back at a wait and see mode. One thing is certain though: this could be a step towards a much larger war. Let's hope not.
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