For more than the last year America has been subjected to constant media/Democrat stories about supposed collusion between Russia and the Trump campaign. To date, there is no evidence of any such collusion. Nevertheless, Trump/Russia is a favorite topic on CNN and MSNBC as well as in the bulk of the mainstream media. Well now there is an actual Trump/Russia issue and there seems to be very little coverage of it. That issue is how Russia and the USA will react to the latest confrontation in Syria between Israeli aircraft and Syrian and Iranian ground and air defense forces.
I wrote yesterday about the Iranians sending a drone into northern Israel only to see it shot down by Israeli defense personnel. That was followed by an Israeli air raid to destroy the base from which the drone was launched. The Syrians and Iranians launched over 20 anti-aircraft missiles at the six Israeli planes. When one of the pilots recognized that a missile had locked onto his craft, he and his co-pilot ejected before the plane was hit. Israel then enlarged its force in another attack. This time four Iranian and even more Syrian military positions were hit. Almost all were anti-aircraft missile batteries which were destroyed. All Israeli planes returned to base safely despite the Syrians again launching droves of anti-aircraft missiles.
So why is this a Trump-Russia issue? First, Russia is the principal supporter of Syrian dictator Assad. Russia has both naval and air forces in Syria at bases along the Mediterranean coast. While the Syrian air force is a joke and the Iranians have no meaningful air assets in Syria, the Russian planes could present a danger to Israeli air forces. More important, there is no way that Israel would want to have a confrontation with Russian forces. Such a battle would be costly and would also be one that the Israelis would be unlikely to win in the long run. Russia used to be a superpower, and its military remains one of the strongest in the world. Second, the USA has significant forces in Syria and the region as well. President Trump surely would not want to see the Iranians get an even stronger foothold in Syria. That would bode ill for the future of American interests in the region.
Let's go back to the original question: how will Russia and the USA react? So far, the Russians have called for "restraint" on both side. The USA has reaffirmed the right of Israel to defend itself against incursions into its territory and called for calm. Neither of these responses is very surprising. Will the Russians stand back while Assad and the Iranians get pounded? It very well may do so although one would expect Putin to back Assad. Will the USA indicate to the Russians that any involvement by their forces against Israel would be considered a grave threat to American security? That too is possible, although one would expect that the Trump administration would not want to go down the road towards a possible confrontation with the Russians. My prediction is that American and Russian diplomats will soon speak (if they haven't done so already) and conclude that neither side will get involved for the moment. This is not either one abandoning an ally. The Russians want Assad dependent on them; getting Iran out of Syria helps accomplish that. Having the Israelis weaken the Iranian position helps with that effort. For the USA, there is great hesitancy to move towards further military involvement in the region; we have enough on our plate. Israel is clearly handling the situation for now. America can stay on the sidelines.
At the moment, Syria has moved into a close second to North Korea as the most dangerous place in the world with regard to starting a major war. Let's hope calm prevails.
I wrote yesterday about the Iranians sending a drone into northern Israel only to see it shot down by Israeli defense personnel. That was followed by an Israeli air raid to destroy the base from which the drone was launched. The Syrians and Iranians launched over 20 anti-aircraft missiles at the six Israeli planes. When one of the pilots recognized that a missile had locked onto his craft, he and his co-pilot ejected before the plane was hit. Israel then enlarged its force in another attack. This time four Iranian and even more Syrian military positions were hit. Almost all were anti-aircraft missile batteries which were destroyed. All Israeli planes returned to base safely despite the Syrians again launching droves of anti-aircraft missiles.
So why is this a Trump-Russia issue? First, Russia is the principal supporter of Syrian dictator Assad. Russia has both naval and air forces in Syria at bases along the Mediterranean coast. While the Syrian air force is a joke and the Iranians have no meaningful air assets in Syria, the Russian planes could present a danger to Israeli air forces. More important, there is no way that Israel would want to have a confrontation with Russian forces. Such a battle would be costly and would also be one that the Israelis would be unlikely to win in the long run. Russia used to be a superpower, and its military remains one of the strongest in the world. Second, the USA has significant forces in Syria and the region as well. President Trump surely would not want to see the Iranians get an even stronger foothold in Syria. That would bode ill for the future of American interests in the region.
Let's go back to the original question: how will Russia and the USA react? So far, the Russians have called for "restraint" on both side. The USA has reaffirmed the right of Israel to defend itself against incursions into its territory and called for calm. Neither of these responses is very surprising. Will the Russians stand back while Assad and the Iranians get pounded? It very well may do so although one would expect Putin to back Assad. Will the USA indicate to the Russians that any involvement by their forces against Israel would be considered a grave threat to American security? That too is possible, although one would expect that the Trump administration would not want to go down the road towards a possible confrontation with the Russians. My prediction is that American and Russian diplomats will soon speak (if they haven't done so already) and conclude that neither side will get involved for the moment. This is not either one abandoning an ally. The Russians want Assad dependent on them; getting Iran out of Syria helps accomplish that. Having the Israelis weaken the Iranian position helps with that effort. For the USA, there is great hesitancy to move towards further military involvement in the region; we have enough on our plate. Israel is clearly handling the situation for now. America can stay on the sidelines.
At the moment, Syria has moved into a close second to North Korea as the most dangerous place in the world with regard to starting a major war. Let's hope calm prevails.
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