So, Are You A Citizen of the USA?

The Supreme Court heard arguments today on the question of whether or not the 2020 census form could include a question asking if the people responding are citizens.  That question was included in every census from 1810 to 1950.  At that point, the question was moved from the short form which everyone answers to the long form which only 20% must answer.  The Secretary of Commerce (who oversees the census) put the question back on the short form for 2020.  After that, various Democrats sued claiming that the citizenship question was illegal since it would depress the numbers of illegal immigrants who answer the census.  Three lower federal courts have accepted that argument, but these are rulings from highly sympathetic liberal judges.  The case went up on appeal directly to the Supreme Court on an expedited basis since a rapid decision is needed so that the census forms can be prepared in time for the count next March.

Determining the view of the court from an oral argument is a remarkably hard and risky thing to do.  Nevertheless, the consensus view of observers seems to be that the government will win by a 5-4 or 6-3 vote.  Apparently, all the conservative justices who spoke seemed to favor allowing the question while the liberals opposed it.  Justice Breyer didn't have much to say, so there is much less speculation about his views.  Similarly Justice Thomas didn't say much, but he rarely does during oral argument.

The idea that there is something improper about asking this question is at best idiotic.  My prediction is that the Court will rule for the government within the next 6 weeks.