According to 538, there are now 16 Democrats who qualify for the first two debates which the party will hold starting in June. It seems that every declared candidate other than Eric Swalwell, Seth Moulton and Marianne Williamson has made the cut. And Williamson is supposedly very close to achieving that goal. Swalwell and Moulton only got into the race recently, so maybe they too will make the grade. In any event, it's going to be quite the spectacle when the debates actually proceed.
Debates of this sort won't make much of a difference but they will promote major hostility between the participants. Think of it this way. The debate will last two hours. With introductions and other interruptions, there should be about 110 minutes available for openings, questions and closings (if there are openings and closings.) That comes to 11 minutes per candidate if the questions are distributed evenly. We all know, however, that those questions won't be distributed evenly. That means that a second tier candidate will most likely get something in the area of 7 minutes of questions and answers. The pressure to stand out will be intense; otherwise, the candidate will be forgotten in the total picture. Will that force Tim Ryan to attack Bernie Sanders' socialism? Will that push Amy Klobuchar to take on Joe Biden for his attitude towards women? Will Kirsten Gillibrand point out that Kamala Harris began her career as the mistress of Willie Brown in California? The answer to these and similar questions is almost surely yes. If there were two or three candidates, the debates might be civil, but with nine or ten participants, the second and third tier have nothing to lose. They have to take a shot if they are to make a big splash.
Debates of this sort won't make much of a difference but they will promote major hostility between the participants. Think of it this way. The debate will last two hours. With introductions and other interruptions, there should be about 110 minutes available for openings, questions and closings (if there are openings and closings.) That comes to 11 minutes per candidate if the questions are distributed evenly. We all know, however, that those questions won't be distributed evenly. That means that a second tier candidate will most likely get something in the area of 7 minutes of questions and answers. The pressure to stand out will be intense; otherwise, the candidate will be forgotten in the total picture. Will that force Tim Ryan to attack Bernie Sanders' socialism? Will that push Amy Klobuchar to take on Joe Biden for his attitude towards women? Will Kirsten Gillibrand point out that Kamala Harris began her career as the mistress of Willie Brown in California? The answer to these and similar questions is almost surely yes. If there were two or three candidates, the debates might be civil, but with nine or ten participants, the second and third tier have nothing to lose. They have to take a shot if they are to make a big splash.
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