In Las Vegas and also in Britain, the bookies will take bets on the presidential election. These are not like the bogus polls in the mainstream media; there is real money involved with these bets, so the odds makers analyze the status of the election very closely. The odds also reflect to a certain extent what the many tens of thousands of people betting think will be the outcome.
One month ago, the odds at the main bookmakers were Biden 61% to Trump 39%. It was the highest score Biden ever achieved. For the first four months of the year, the Vegas odds favored Trump even though the polls showed Biden ahead. Then in May, Biden pulled ahead as the virus lockdown caused the economy to crater and also killed tens of thousands of deaths.
In the last month, Biden started to fall and Trump to rise. This move has accelerated in recent days, and as of this morning, the average odds are back to 50-50. The polling still shows Biden ahead because it is an average of older and newer polls. It also shows Biden ahead because many of the pollsters stack their surveys so as to give the Democrats an advantage. They hope to demoralize the GOP voters. Those polls, however, no longer are believed by over half of America's voters. We all remember 2016 when on election day, we were told by the pollsters and the polling analysts like Nate Silver at 538 that Hillary Clinton had a 97% chance of winning while Trump had less than a 3% chance to win. Even in 2018, there were results like those in Florida where the pollsters put the Democrats 3-5% ahead in the races for governor and senator and the Republicans won both.
Since the odds don't have the built in bias of the polls, they reflect a much better picture of the race.
One more note: the odds are 50/50 today, but Trump has all the momentum as Biden is crashing. It seems that the Democrats convention showed America who the Dems truly are. No sane American could understand how the Dems could speak for four nights, non-stop and mention racism hundreds of time while remaining totally silent on the riots and street violence raging across the country. No sane American could understand how the Dems could talk for 12 hours on TV and fail to mention the threat of China (or to mention China in any context.) Hiding from problems is just not an answer to solving those problems.
Things change in politics, so no one knows what will happen to affect the race in the next month. If September is anything like August, however, Biden can just stay in his basement. There's no point in coming out.
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