Ignoring Reality

 What is the reality of the corona virus and its effect on people?  I don't mean how the virus affects individuals, but rather how has it hit a large population.  It's worth looking at the numbers for Pennsylvania to see the result.  PA has been hit by the virus, especially early on in the pandemic, but things there never got crazy bad like they did in neighboring NY or NJ.  Still, there have been 129,000 cases in PA since the start of the pandemic.  Of those people infected, 7576 have died.

Let's take a look at just who it was that was killed by the virus.  

First of all, more than half of those passing away from the virus were residents of long term care facilities like nursing homes.  

Second, even for those people who were not in nursing homes, the vast bulk of those who died were quite elderly.  The total number of people dying at age 90 or higher was twice the number of deaths among people 60 or younger.  That's extraordinary since the number of people under 60 are 74% of the population of the state while those over 90 constitute less than 2% of the population.  Even more astounding, the median age of those who have died was over 82.

Third, among the young, the number of deaths is tiny. To date, seven people under 30 in PA have died from the virus.  Only 151 between the ages of 30 and 50 have died with the virus.

Fourth, the numbers of deaths have fallen off dramatically as have the numbers of cases. There were only 18 new deaths reported yesterday compared to the average daily toll of 44 since the start of the pandemic.

Think about what this means.  

Let's start with schools.  In many locations, the schools are being taught on the internet, something that no one believes is an adequate substitute for in person instruction.  My local school system has ordered all instruction to be remote until October at a minimum.  We already know that the number of school age children who died from the virus in the entire state thus far is two, and it's unclear from public data if these children had other serious medical problems.  Obviously, for kids with major medical problems, it would make sense for them to get special protections.  But for the average school child, there seems to be no reason to force those kids to stay home.  Remember, for most kids who have to stay home, it means that a parent also has to stay home, something which can place a severe financial hardship on the family.

Some people argue that letting the kids go to school will mean that they can get the virus and then spread it to their parents.  Of course, if you look at the figures for people 20-50 in PA, you find hardly any of them were killed by the virus either.  Certainly, any number of deaths is not a good thing, but shutting down the state's economy or burdening the parents with the need for all day child care because there is an infinitesimal chance of dire consequences due to the virus makes no sense.  Every day, every one of us faces the risk of death.  Car accidents, diseases, and all manner of other things -- even lighting strikes--are part of life.  No one can be totally safe.

Of course, the elderly people or those with serious medical conditions already are at risk from the virus.  They need to be protected.  The way to do that, however, is not to keep the state shut down or to keep the schools closed.  No, the best protection is targeted measures designed to protect the most vulnerable.  Remember, early in the pandemic there were particular problems in nursing homes (especially in NY where Cuomo issued his crazy order to force homes to take infected patients.).  Measures are now in place to reduce that risk.  As a result, the numbers of deaths in nursing homes have fallen in dramatic fashion.  That is something that can be expanded to all high risk groups.

There is no valid reason to keep schools closed.  There is no valid reason to keep restaurants closed.  There is no valid reason for the bulk of the restrictions that have been imposed on the American people.