Interesting Times For Iran

 This has been an interesting time for Iran.  In just the last six months more of moment has happened than normally comes about in six years.  Consider these events:

1.  A few months ago, there were major explosions in a number of key points across the country.  Most important, there was a major explosion which destroyed Iran's main site for enrichment of uranium into fissionable material.  The factory that built advanced centrifuges which allow rapid enrichment was also destroyed.  Estimates at the time were that the explosion set back the Iranian enrichment program by two years at a minimum.

2.  Iran has been hit hard by the COVID 19 virus.  Iran was one of the countries hit early.  Its statistics on infections, hospitalizations and deaths are highly suspect, but the Iranians admit to 20,000 dead and roughly 350,000 cases.  If you look at the numbers of new cases each day that Teheran puts out, you see that they have been remarkably steady at around 2500-2800.  This is a pattern not duplicated in any other country with a major level of infection.  Normally, the rate of new cases rises rapidly, hits a peak and then slowly declines.  The shape of the curve in Iran is a telling sign that the figures are false.  Almost certainly, the level of infection has been much worse (since the regime would hardly make the figures worse than they actually are.)

3.  The blast in Beirut where fertilizer held in storage by Hezbollah blew up and nearly leveled much of the city, was a disaster from Iran as well.  Hezbollah is the proxy for Iran in Lebanon.  Iran has spent billions strengthening Hezbollah and its position inside Lebanon.  It was the means by which Iran exercised control over Lebanon.  Now, with the level of anger having risen so high in Lebanon, the Iranian position has been shaken.

4.  The announcement the other day of a peace deal between Israel and the UAE was also a major blow to Iran.  But for fear of Iran, it is unlikely that the emirates would have entered into a deal with the Israelis.  Clearly the target of the deal is Iran.  Soon, other regional states like Oman or Qatar or Kuwait may make similar deals and cement the anti-Iranian alliance in the region.  All this strengthens the Israeli position and weakens the Iranians.

5.  Two days ago, the US Navy seized four tankers loaded with oil from Iran that were heading to port in Venezuela.  The world oil markets have collapsed during the pandemic, so the revenue from Iran's oil fields would have fallen regardless of US actions.  The embargo on Iranian oil, however, has been most effective.  Iran's oil income -- which is the main financial support for the Islamic regime -- has nearly dried up.  The squeeze on the Iranian economy is massive.  Iran landed troops on some British flagged tankers in international waters in the Persian Gulf yesterday, but the Iranians did not stay around to take the tankers into Iranian ports.  Instead, it was an empty show of force, but a force that fled before the strength of US naval units in the region could be brought to counter the Iranian moves.  It was more a show of weakness than force.

6.  Yesterday, the UN Security Council voted against extending the arms embargo on Iran passed as part of the JCPOA some years ago.  Since China and Russia oppose any extension, the Security Council will never do anything in this regard.

With all this (and more) going on, the Iranian regime is slowly being backed into a corner.  If unrest in Teheran and other cities expands, we could see the regime fall or else we could see a major crackdown by the regime on dissent.  

The fall of the Islamic regime from power would end its role as perhaps the world's biggest supporter of terrorism.  It would be a wonderful outcome for the rest of the world.  Let's hope it happens imminently.