The state with the longest string of supporting Democrats in the entire country is Minnesota. The last Republican to carry Minnesota in a presidential race was Richard Nixon in 1972. Today, the Trafalgar polling group released a Minnesota poll of likely voters that showed each of Biden and Trump with 47%. That's amazing. Normally one would think that if Biden loses Minnesota, he will almost certainly lose the election. This year, however, that may not be the case. Minnesota is where George Floyd died while in police custody. The initial riots were all in Minneapolis and Minnesota is not the sort of place that takes kindly to rioters. On top of that, the police took a big hit after Floyd died even though that death was at most the work of one officer, not all police. If I had to speculate, this poll is the result of many Minnesotans reacting negatively to the Democrats' support for (or at least failure to denounce) the rioters.
If this change in Minnesota is also seen in other places hard hit by the riots, we could see Wisconsin, Oregon and Washington move towards supporting the Republicans. That's roughly 40 electoral votes that could get locked in for Trump. Most likely that would keep Trump in the Oval Office.
In 2016, Trump won by breaking the "blue wall" of Democrat states. If he wins these four states in 2020, the blue wall will be nothing more than rubble.
No comments:
Post a Comment