The NBA and some minor sports like Women's soccer shut down yesterday in protest over the events in Kenosha Wisconsin. Of course, we really don't know what happened in Kenosha yet as the investigation is still underway. It doesn't matter; the millionaires who play basketball decided to show their solidarity by refusing to play.
This gives rise to an important question: does anyone care if the NBA plays or not?
There are certainly still some people who follow the NBA, but the league has seen its audience fall off in dramatic fashion in recent years. Here's a key statistic: in the 2020 playoffs, the NBA TV audience has been off by 30% compared to last year. And that entire decline came before (right BEFORE) there were any boycotts or cancelled games due to events in Kenosha or elsewhere.
Think about that. Because of COVID 19, the quantity of sports on TV is way down from normal. That should increase the NBA audience since viewers who want sports have fewer alternatives. Instead, the audience has fallen by 30%. That's the type of audience change that is not just a statistical quirk. It means that about one viewer in three abandoned the telecasts since last year.
I may be wrong, but I think it is safe to assume that the boycotts will result in the further loss of audience for future telecasts. The NBA already has no ticket sales due to the virus. It has no concession sales at the arenas. It has reduced souvenir sales since it only has online retailing left. Now, its biggest money maker, TV revenues, are being shaken and look like they are crumbling. If that TV audience declines further, it is unlikely that the new contracts will bring in anything like the current TV contracts.
One nice thing about all this is that the players who pushed this boycott will get the result of their actions: salaries in the league will go down (gasp!) Sure, the owners are extremely wealthy. Still, there aren't too many who will be happy to operate a team at a big loss. Expenses like salaries will have to conform to the very much lower revenue stream.
In short, the people who are most likely to care if the NBA plays or not will turn out to be the players.
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