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Wednesday, October 23, 2013

Middle East Muddle

Recent news reports have announced that Saudi Arabia is furious at president Obama and America for recent moves regarding Syria, Iran and Egypt.  In each case, the biggest Saudi upset is not the final course of action chosen by Obama (although the Saudis do not like what America has done).  No, the Saudis are angriest because Obama has made major moves in the Middle East without first consulting with them.  Obama essentially cut off the Egyptian military government without first talking to the Saudis.  Obama completely flipped his position on missile strikes on Syria and the need for Assad to go without first talking to the Saudis.  Obama has opened a dialogue with Iran which looks like the precursor to a nuclear armed Islamic Republic without consulting with the Saudis.  In short, Obama has treated the Saudis, a long time American ally, like they were Republicans. 

So does this Saudi anger make any difference in the long run?  It surely does.  Just wait for the first deal in which the Saudis buy military equipment from Russia or China.  Maybe, instead, the big news will come from a long term supply contract under which the Saudis ship their oil to China.  Maybe the Saudis will start funding some country or group that the USA does not like.  At that point, Washington will wake up and become concerned about the Saudis.  One needs to remember that the Saudis have incredible oil reserves and wealth.  Sure, with the boom in oil production here at home due to fracking, America needs less and less of the Saudi oil, but that is not true for the rest of the world.  At the moment, the Saudis still have their hands on the spigot which controls the world economy.  They remain a country that America should want to count as a friend rather than an enemy.

For the umpteenth time since he took office, Obama seems to have confused the importance of what he says when compared to what he does.  Everywhere around the world (except in the Oval Office), actions speak louder than words.  The Saudis do not care exactly what Obama says if he treats Saudi Arabia as an ally and accords it the respect to which it is due.  This is not a difficult concept to grasp.  Surely, the State Department has someone there who understands it. 

Right now, Obama has achieved a fundamental transformation of America's policy in the Middle East.  When Obama took office, our four closest allies in the region were Israel, Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Jordan.  Obama has managed to destroy ties with Egypt.  He has alienated the governments of Israel and Saudi Arabia.  He has increased the anxiety level of the Jordanian monarchy to extremely high levels by doing nothing to help the Jordanians stem the flood of refugees from Syria.  Right now, America is losing all its allies in the region.  In their place, however, Obama has moved closer to Assad in Syria whose government Obama all but endorsed in the chemical weapons deal.  Obama has now also moved closer to Iran, the country which would gladly send nuclear weapons to major American cities if it could.  Obama also supported the Moslem Brotherhood in its attempt to impose a dictatorship on Egypt.  In short, Obama has moved American policy from coherence to complete muddle.



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