There is an amazing set of polling figures out today from the AP. Most coverage has focused on the section of the poll which has more people blaming Republicans that president Obama for the partial government shutdown. This is interesting, but all it really shows is that there is a clear majority of the country that blames both sides. There is a higher number that hits the GOP on that topic, but the result is no the overwhelming blame for Republicans that the Democrats and Obama were expecting.
Much more important, however, are the views of those polled on how Obama is handling his job. Here too, the main focus has been on Obama's approval rating falling to 37%, and all time low. That is a bad result, but when the folks were asked about individual issues, the really bad news came out for the president. The most astounding number came when people were asked if they approve of how Obama is "managing the federal government". By a margin of 51% to 21% people disapproved of Obama's job on that score. Handling the federal budget deficit got Obama a 52 to 22% disapproval rating. Obama's handling of the economy was rated unfavorably by a margin of 50 to 25%. Of twelve issues on which the question was asked, Obama got a favorable rating only on his handling of the environment, and that positive rating was very slight. On average, when specific issues were the subject of the questions, Obama got positive ratings from about 10% less of those polled than on the overall question. In other words, Obama's overall positive rating was a poor 37% but his average rating on individual issues was only positive for about 26% of the people polled.
It is important to understand that the trend in most of these sorts of polls has individual issues running ahead of the overall rating. In other words, people change their view of the president first on individual issues and then later on an overall basis. That means that the poll actually indicates that the 37% job approval which Obama received is likely to decline in coming weeks absent an event which changes the perceptions of the public.
My guess is that this poll and others like it explains why Obama has started to sound more reasonable regarding the partial shutdown and the increase of the debt ceiling. Obama needs to change the perception that he is refusing to even discuss paying for things like cancer research and military death benefits for fallen heroes. If he does not, he may quickly lose any chance of enacting any of his agenda for the second term.
Much more important, however, are the views of those polled on how Obama is handling his job. Here too, the main focus has been on Obama's approval rating falling to 37%, and all time low. That is a bad result, but when the folks were asked about individual issues, the really bad news came out for the president. The most astounding number came when people were asked if they approve of how Obama is "managing the federal government". By a margin of 51% to 21% people disapproved of Obama's job on that score. Handling the federal budget deficit got Obama a 52 to 22% disapproval rating. Obama's handling of the economy was rated unfavorably by a margin of 50 to 25%. Of twelve issues on which the question was asked, Obama got a favorable rating only on his handling of the environment, and that positive rating was very slight. On average, when specific issues were the subject of the questions, Obama got positive ratings from about 10% less of those polled than on the overall question. In other words, Obama's overall positive rating was a poor 37% but his average rating on individual issues was only positive for about 26% of the people polled.
It is important to understand that the trend in most of these sorts of polls has individual issues running ahead of the overall rating. In other words, people change their view of the president first on individual issues and then later on an overall basis. That means that the poll actually indicates that the 37% job approval which Obama received is likely to decline in coming weeks absent an event which changes the perceptions of the public.
My guess is that this poll and others like it explains why Obama has started to sound more reasonable regarding the partial shutdown and the increase of the debt ceiling. Obama needs to change the perception that he is refusing to even discuss paying for things like cancer research and military death benefits for fallen heroes. If he does not, he may quickly lose any chance of enacting any of his agenda for the second term.
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