Last Thursday, I wrote about how there was movement in the Trump vs Hillary polls away from Hillary and towards Trump. There was even a poll that showed the race tied. Today we have more information to support that shift. The most recent national poll shows Trump ahead of Hillary by 41% to 39%. There are also head to head results for the state of Ohio which show Hillary ahead by 3% against Trump. That margin needs to be compared to polls prior to the shift which showed Hillary's lead about twice as large in that state.
Does all this mean Trump will beat Hillary? Of course not. What it actually means is that Trump well may beat Hillary. Indeed, if I had to place a bet right now, I would choose Trump for the following reasons:
1. Everyone already knows exactly who Hillary is. She is not going to win over any sizeable group of converts to her cause who are surprised to learn who she is and what she stands for. Trump is also quite well known. Most of his positions, however, are not well known. If you ask the average voter why they don't like Trump, many will say he is a "racist". Of course, if you ask what makes him a racist, there's a lot of stuttering. Sure, some would say that he wants to stop Moslems from entering the country. Still, if you ask the average American if they support or oppose a policy that bars entry to Moslems until the USA can figure out a better way to determine who is and who is not a terrorist (which is Trump's proposal), the supporters outnumber the opposition by about a margin of 2 to 1. As people learn what Trump actually proposed, their opposition to him may lessen. Some would say he's a racist because he wants to build a wall on the Mexican border and keep out all immigrants. In fact, Trump called all Mexicans rapists and murderers, or so they have been told. But again, there's that pesky truth that Trump said that there were rapists and murderers among those who crossed into our country from Mexico and that the Mexican government was glad to get rid of those trouble makers. That's quite a different thing. And as for the wall, again the large majority of the country supports cutting off illegal entry across the southern border according to poll after poll. The point here is that as Trump gets his message out, many voters will move towards him and away from Hillary.
2. The economy is sagging badly. In the last half year, the economy has hardly grown at all. Indeed, we may already be in a full fledged recession. Certainly, the manufacturing economy of the USA is in recession. Hillary's plan for the economy is to continue the Obama policies that gave us this mess. As the economy continues to sag, Hillary will lose support.
3. There really is no enthusiasm for Hillary. Think about it for a moment. How many fervent Hillary supporters do you know? Even Bill Clinton sometimes seems luke warm in his support of his wife. Hillary wins over Bernie Sanders, but it is Bernie who has all the energy. On the other hand, Trump has legions of loyal supporters who are full of energy (and devotion). When we get to November, the Trumpsters are going to do whatever it takes to vote. The Cliintonistas ...not so much. The only place where Hillary may gain some enthusiasm is in the Hispanic community. Those who think that Trump is a threat to them are more likely to vote. Will that make up for the lack of enthusiasm elsewhere? I doubt it.
4. The Republican party will be unified by November. Right now, the battle between the Trumpists and the Never Trumpists is ongoing. The Never Trump forces are falling apart though. After Indiana, Cruz may remain in the race, but (assuming Trump wins) he will have no chance to stop Trump. At that point, the GOP will be faced with the single most important unifying factor of recent years: the prospect of Hillary Clinton as president. That prospect will draw millions of GOP voters back towards support of Trump.
5. The Democrats may not be unified in November. Bernie Sanders will not get the nomination. nevertheless, his supporters are just less than half of the voters in the Democrat primaries and caucuses. In order to try to gain the support of these voters, Hillary has moved to far left positions all through the battle. As election day approaches, Hillary is going to have to walk back some of her positions from the primaries or risk losing independents to Trump. The Sanders' voters already distrust Hillary. If she reneges on her promises made during the primaries, it will disgust the leftist ideologues. They may just stay home since they won't really see much of a difference between Trump and Hillary (who is, according to them, under the control of Wall Street.)
So is it time for panic in Hillaryland? Not yet. If the current trend continues, however, we may soon see major panic breaking out.
Does all this mean Trump will beat Hillary? Of course not. What it actually means is that Trump well may beat Hillary. Indeed, if I had to place a bet right now, I would choose Trump for the following reasons:
1. Everyone already knows exactly who Hillary is. She is not going to win over any sizeable group of converts to her cause who are surprised to learn who she is and what she stands for. Trump is also quite well known. Most of his positions, however, are not well known. If you ask the average voter why they don't like Trump, many will say he is a "racist". Of course, if you ask what makes him a racist, there's a lot of stuttering. Sure, some would say that he wants to stop Moslems from entering the country. Still, if you ask the average American if they support or oppose a policy that bars entry to Moslems until the USA can figure out a better way to determine who is and who is not a terrorist (which is Trump's proposal), the supporters outnumber the opposition by about a margin of 2 to 1. As people learn what Trump actually proposed, their opposition to him may lessen. Some would say he's a racist because he wants to build a wall on the Mexican border and keep out all immigrants. In fact, Trump called all Mexicans rapists and murderers, or so they have been told. But again, there's that pesky truth that Trump said that there were rapists and murderers among those who crossed into our country from Mexico and that the Mexican government was glad to get rid of those trouble makers. That's quite a different thing. And as for the wall, again the large majority of the country supports cutting off illegal entry across the southern border according to poll after poll. The point here is that as Trump gets his message out, many voters will move towards him and away from Hillary.
2. The economy is sagging badly. In the last half year, the economy has hardly grown at all. Indeed, we may already be in a full fledged recession. Certainly, the manufacturing economy of the USA is in recession. Hillary's plan for the economy is to continue the Obama policies that gave us this mess. As the economy continues to sag, Hillary will lose support.
3. There really is no enthusiasm for Hillary. Think about it for a moment. How many fervent Hillary supporters do you know? Even Bill Clinton sometimes seems luke warm in his support of his wife. Hillary wins over Bernie Sanders, but it is Bernie who has all the energy. On the other hand, Trump has legions of loyal supporters who are full of energy (and devotion). When we get to November, the Trumpsters are going to do whatever it takes to vote. The Cliintonistas ...not so much. The only place where Hillary may gain some enthusiasm is in the Hispanic community. Those who think that Trump is a threat to them are more likely to vote. Will that make up for the lack of enthusiasm elsewhere? I doubt it.
4. The Republican party will be unified by November. Right now, the battle between the Trumpists and the Never Trumpists is ongoing. The Never Trump forces are falling apart though. After Indiana, Cruz may remain in the race, but (assuming Trump wins) he will have no chance to stop Trump. At that point, the GOP will be faced with the single most important unifying factor of recent years: the prospect of Hillary Clinton as president. That prospect will draw millions of GOP voters back towards support of Trump.
5. The Democrats may not be unified in November. Bernie Sanders will not get the nomination. nevertheless, his supporters are just less than half of the voters in the Democrat primaries and caucuses. In order to try to gain the support of these voters, Hillary has moved to far left positions all through the battle. As election day approaches, Hillary is going to have to walk back some of her positions from the primaries or risk losing independents to Trump. The Sanders' voters already distrust Hillary. If she reneges on her promises made during the primaries, it will disgust the leftist ideologues. They may just stay home since they won't really see much of a difference between Trump and Hillary (who is, according to them, under the control of Wall Street.)
So is it time for panic in Hillaryland? Not yet. If the current trend continues, however, we may soon see major panic breaking out.
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