Remember Kim Jong Un? He is the nut who is the current leader of North Korea. Kim threw a temper tantrum during the last six weeks. He threatened nuclear war with South Korea, America and Japan. He terminated the armistice agreement with South Korea. He shut down the industrial park that was one of the few places where North Korea actually got hard currency because it was a joint venture with the South. He lined up missiles so that they were ready for launch. And the world just yawned.
Right now, Kim Jung Un must be in a daze. He used the same threats and the same nonsense as his grandfather and his father before him, but it did not work. No one believed that the North Koreans would actually launch a nuclear war, even if they are totally crazy.
This makes the next two months extremely dangerous. Kim did not get the sanctions removed off the NKs. Kim did not get some sort of payoff from the West. Kim did not get any movement in favor of his country despite all of the nutso antics. If Kim takes from all this that these tactics no longer work, then the world will be a safer place. On the other hand, if Kim's conclusion is that the old tactics will work but that North Korea needs to step up the level of confrontation, then we are in for some scary episodes in the near future.
There is no way to know how Kim will decide to go. My guess, however, is that he will opt to step up the provocations. Time will tell.
Right now, Kim Jung Un must be in a daze. He used the same threats and the same nonsense as his grandfather and his father before him, but it did not work. No one believed that the North Koreans would actually launch a nuclear war, even if they are totally crazy.
This makes the next two months extremely dangerous. Kim did not get the sanctions removed off the NKs. Kim did not get some sort of payoff from the West. Kim did not get any movement in favor of his country despite all of the nutso antics. If Kim takes from all this that these tactics no longer work, then the world will be a safer place. On the other hand, if Kim's conclusion is that the old tactics will work but that North Korea needs to step up the level of confrontation, then we are in for some scary episodes in the near future.
There is no way to know how Kim will decide to go. My guess, however, is that he will opt to step up the provocations. Time will tell.
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