Three weeks ago, I wrote about the upcoming congressional election in South Carolina and the Virginia gubernatorial election later this year. I predicted the collapse of the Sanford campaign in South Carolina and a similar fate for the McAuliffe campaign in Virginia. At the moment it appears that I was only half right.
In South Carolina, the race between Sanford and Colbert Busch is tied according to the latest polls. It is true that the former governor suffered a body blow after the primary when his ex wife accused him of trespassing, a move that brought back to the fore the history of Sanford's affair and later divorce while he was governor. Much of that has blown over, however, due to two trends that have pushed voters in the district back to the Republican ex governor. First, Colbert Busch has run a totally negative campaign. She seeks the office because she is not Sanford, but she offers essentially nothing that she stands for. Second, the national Democrat party has launched a major ad buy in the district and figures like Nancy Pelosi have pushed for Colbert Busch. Being tied to the national Democrat party is not a good strategy in a district that backed Romney over Obama by 18% last November. Even a flawed candidate like Sanford may survive those flaws give the huge unpopularity of the Democrats in the district. The results may all depend on turnout.
In Virginia, the McAuliffe campaign has indeed shown signs of the collapse that I mentioned three weeks ago. The latest polls now show Attorney General Republican Ken Cuccinelli 10% ahead of Democrat McAuliffe. Terry McAuliffe was exposed as running a sleazy "green energy" business that really functioned as a visa factory. He put the plant in Mississippi rather than Virginia after promoting the company as a Virginia job creator. Of course, it seems that the plant really does not employ anyone yet. Then it turned out that McAuliffe was raising capital for the business by getting Chinese businessmen to "invest" a sufficient amount so that they could qualify for the special exemption in the American immigration laws that allows big investors to get green cards. It was more a scam and much less a green energy enterprise. As the word about this continues to spread in Virginia, the numbers for McAuliffe continue to sink lower and lower. Unless something big shifts between now and November, Cuccinelli should be elected governor easily.
Lastly, I know it is not one of the two races I spoke of earlier, but it is worth noting that in New Jersey, Chris Christie is running more than 30% ahead of his Democrat opponent. It seems inevitable that Christie will win big. The real question now is whether or not he will be able to swing the legislature to the Republicans. All of the Senate and the House are up for election this time. The GOP needs a pickup of 4 seats in the Senate and 8 seats in the House to take control. If Christie can sweep in the additional legislators, it will be the first time in over 50 years that the GOP would take control in Trenton. While it is not likely, it actually is possible.
In South Carolina, the race between Sanford and Colbert Busch is tied according to the latest polls. It is true that the former governor suffered a body blow after the primary when his ex wife accused him of trespassing, a move that brought back to the fore the history of Sanford's affair and later divorce while he was governor. Much of that has blown over, however, due to two trends that have pushed voters in the district back to the Republican ex governor. First, Colbert Busch has run a totally negative campaign. She seeks the office because she is not Sanford, but she offers essentially nothing that she stands for. Second, the national Democrat party has launched a major ad buy in the district and figures like Nancy Pelosi have pushed for Colbert Busch. Being tied to the national Democrat party is not a good strategy in a district that backed Romney over Obama by 18% last November. Even a flawed candidate like Sanford may survive those flaws give the huge unpopularity of the Democrats in the district. The results may all depend on turnout.
In Virginia, the McAuliffe campaign has indeed shown signs of the collapse that I mentioned three weeks ago. The latest polls now show Attorney General Republican Ken Cuccinelli 10% ahead of Democrat McAuliffe. Terry McAuliffe was exposed as running a sleazy "green energy" business that really functioned as a visa factory. He put the plant in Mississippi rather than Virginia after promoting the company as a Virginia job creator. Of course, it seems that the plant really does not employ anyone yet. Then it turned out that McAuliffe was raising capital for the business by getting Chinese businessmen to "invest" a sufficient amount so that they could qualify for the special exemption in the American immigration laws that allows big investors to get green cards. It was more a scam and much less a green energy enterprise. As the word about this continues to spread in Virginia, the numbers for McAuliffe continue to sink lower and lower. Unless something big shifts between now and November, Cuccinelli should be elected governor easily.
Lastly, I know it is not one of the two races I spoke of earlier, but it is worth noting that in New Jersey, Chris Christie is running more than 30% ahead of his Democrat opponent. It seems inevitable that Christie will win big. The real question now is whether or not he will be able to swing the legislature to the Republicans. All of the Senate and the House are up for election this time. The GOP needs a pickup of 4 seats in the Senate and 8 seats in the House to take control. If Christie can sweep in the additional legislators, it will be the first time in over 50 years that the GOP would take control in Trenton. While it is not likely, it actually is possible.
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