The Iranian naval forces today forced a cargo ship, the MV Maersk Tigris to leave international waters in the Straits of Hormuz and to sail into an Iranian port. The ship was flying the flag of the Marshall Islands. Despite earlier reports to the contrary, there were no American personnel on the ship. The container ship was traveling from the Saudi port of Jeddah, bound for the United Arab Emirates port of Jebel Ali. [UPDATE -- While this is a ship sailing under the flag of the Marshall Islands, the USA is bound by treaty to handle the defense and foreign affairs of that country.]
The most important question regarding this incident is why did it happen. It could just be that the Iranians thought the ship had strayed into Iranian waters, but that is unlikely. GPS systems make very clear the exact location of ships of this sort; the Iranians almost certainly knew that they were taking a ship in international waters. By far the most likely explanation is that this seizure of the vessel is a warning to the Saudis by the Iranians. Saudi Arabia has been bombing the Houthi rebels in Yemen; the Houthis are supported by Iran. Saudi Arabia has been helping those who are fighting the Assad regime in Syria; Iran supports Assad. Saudi Arabia has been opposed to the American deal with Iran regarding nuclear weapons; the Iranians really want that deal to go through so that the remaining sanctions on their economy will be lifted. The ship seizure is Iran's way of pointing out to the Saudis just how vulnerable their country is to military action by Iran. All those tankers that sail through the straits of Hormuz carrying Saudi oil could be stopped by the Iranians. All the commercial vessels that deliver all sorts of goods to the Saudis could be stopped or, at least, throttled back by Iranian threats. Indeed, if the Iranian action today leads to big rises in insurance rates for maritime traffic in the region (which is most likely), it will be Saudi consumers who will pay the biggest price.
The Iranians seem to have carefully chosen their target. Had an oil tanker been taken, the world would have paid attention. Such an action might have scuttled the talks with the USA, so Iran chose a container ship. The Tigris is also registered to a nation which has no navy and no way to protect its ships. The Iranians are, most likely, counting on president Obama's known preferences for not getting involved with conflicts of this sort despite the threat that Iran's move creates. Also, since the ship is not Saudi (although it had sailed from a Saudi port), any move by the Saudis to free the vessel would seem unlikely.
It is going to be very interesting to see how the Saudis react to this latest move by Iran. There really are not many good outcomes for this mess.
The most important question regarding this incident is why did it happen. It could just be that the Iranians thought the ship had strayed into Iranian waters, but that is unlikely. GPS systems make very clear the exact location of ships of this sort; the Iranians almost certainly knew that they were taking a ship in international waters. By far the most likely explanation is that this seizure of the vessel is a warning to the Saudis by the Iranians. Saudi Arabia has been bombing the Houthi rebels in Yemen; the Houthis are supported by Iran. Saudi Arabia has been helping those who are fighting the Assad regime in Syria; Iran supports Assad. Saudi Arabia has been opposed to the American deal with Iran regarding nuclear weapons; the Iranians really want that deal to go through so that the remaining sanctions on their economy will be lifted. The ship seizure is Iran's way of pointing out to the Saudis just how vulnerable their country is to military action by Iran. All those tankers that sail through the straits of Hormuz carrying Saudi oil could be stopped by the Iranians. All the commercial vessels that deliver all sorts of goods to the Saudis could be stopped or, at least, throttled back by Iranian threats. Indeed, if the Iranian action today leads to big rises in insurance rates for maritime traffic in the region (which is most likely), it will be Saudi consumers who will pay the biggest price.
The Iranians seem to have carefully chosen their target. Had an oil tanker been taken, the world would have paid attention. Such an action might have scuttled the talks with the USA, so Iran chose a container ship. The Tigris is also registered to a nation which has no navy and no way to protect its ships. The Iranians are, most likely, counting on president Obama's known preferences for not getting involved with conflicts of this sort despite the threat that Iran's move creates. Also, since the ship is not Saudi (although it had sailed from a Saudi port), any move by the Saudis to free the vessel would seem unlikely.
It is going to be very interesting to see how the Saudis react to this latest move by Iran. There really are not many good outcomes for this mess.
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