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Monday, April 20, 2015

Let's Watch Obama Back Down

As I write this, there is a convoy of Iranian ships heading towards Yemen.  They are thought to be carrying weapons to supply the Houthi rebels in that country.  At the same time, the US Navy has ships in the area and an American aircraft carrier is also steaming towards the region.  The mission of the American forces is, in part, to carry out the blockade of weapons from reaching Yemen for the Houthis.  Just a few days ago, the UN Security Council unanimously passed a resolution barring the delivery of weapons to the Houthis.  There are a few Iranian warships in the region, but they are destroyers which would be no match for the American forces. 

In normal times, Iran would not challenge the American navy in this way.  The mullahs would know that should their ships attempt to land in Yemen, they would be stopped by American forces and their cargo of weapons would be confiscated.  These, however, are not normal times.  My guess is that in the last day or so, the Ayatollah sent a message to president Obama telling him that in the even that there is any attempt to stop the Iranian weapons deliveries there will be no agreement reached on nuclear weapons by Iran.  With those "magic" words, the Iranians know that they have backed Obama into a corner.  They know that Obama will not risk failure on getting an agreement on nuclear weapons -- no matter what that agreement says-- just to help the elected Yemeni government stop the takeover by the Iranian proxies.  Surely, as the Iranian ships get closer, there will be some method used by Obama to back away from any confrontation.


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