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Monday, March 23, 2015

Not Likely the GOP Will Choose Cruz Control

Senator Ted Cruz announced he is running for president.  He made the announcement on Twitter overnight.  He attached a video to his tweet with a short speech.

Cruz's move opens up some interesting questions:

1.  Did he really have to announce 20 months before election day of 2016?
2.  Since this move will be followed by an avalanche of other candidates, will there really be interest in a campaign which will seemingly never end?
3.  Even with 20 months, can Cruz mount a serious campaign?

Okay, the first two questions are just me being annoyed at the early start of the presidential campaign.  It has nothing to do with Cruz.  He just happens to be the first official "announcement".  Of course, Jeb Bush, Rand Paul, Hillary Clinton, Martin O'Malley, and even Donald Trump have taken every step but that last announcement already.  In another month, we will probably have seven or eight candidates.  By July 1, we may have 15.  It is just too early in my opinion.  I would prefer a bit more focus on governing and a bit less on election races.

The third question, however, is the serious one.  Cruz has been vilified in the media as a conservative bomb thrower.  His positions are always described as "strident", or he is called a "firebrand" or something similar.  It is rare to see calm coverage of the man and his views.  More than anything else, this is Cruz's big problem.  Can he actually break through the media narrative to show the nation his real self.  My guess is no.  There are just too many people who will be in the race for Cruz to be able to get his message through.

Then there is the question of experience.  Cruz is a first term senator.  We tried that last time, and it has not worked out well.  So where will Cruz shine?  There will always be the debates, but even there, it will not be easy to get attention.  Remember, in a one hour debate, that gives very little time to each of the army of candidates.

My guess is that today will be the high point of Cruz's campaign.  Today, all things will be possible.  It's just down hill from here.


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