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Thursday, November 12, 2015

Panic In DC? Only According to the Washington Post

In an unintentionally funny article (highlighted on Drudge) the Washington Post says that the GOP insiders are in a state of panic that Trump or Carson might win the nomination.  Supposedly, these insiders are trying again to draft Mitt Romney. 

Let's take a moment to laugh at this nonsense.  I doubt that there is anyone in the GOP who would like to see Mitt Romney run again.  There surely are people who worry about a Carson or a Trump as the nominee, but that decision is up to the primary voters.  If one of those two is chosen as the nominee, then the real reason for panic is clear:  with either Trump or Carson as president, all these insiders wouldn't be inside anymore.  Imagine all those lobbyists who couldn't claim any stake in Trump who is mostly self funding or Carson whose contributions are nearly all small, grass roots cash.  These two as president could easily just ignore the lobbyists and the other party insiders and that would just kill these people.  Add to this the problem that the next two candidates, senators Rubio and Cruz are both candidates who got elected to DC in the Tea Party revolution.  These two are not big on DC insiders either.  It seems pretty clear that if the next president is Republican, the old guard of the party in DC will have much less influence.  Things might actually get done!

The funniest thing in the WaPo article, however, is the assumption that either Carson or Trump would lose to Hillary Clinton (assuming she hasn't yet been indicted.)  In most polls these days, Carson runs ahead of Hillary.  Indeed, of the last ten national polls that match Clinton and Carson which go back to July, Hillary has been ahead in just one and then only by two points.  Trump does not do as well.  He beats Hillary in some polls but loses in others; the RCP average has her close to 4% ahead.  There is no reason to think that Clinton could beat either of these two men.  If you add Rubio and Cruz into the mix you find that Rubio runs even with Clinton while she beats Cruz by a bit.  So supposedly we have the same inside "experts" who have been saying the Trump and Carson would fade quickly now telling us that they would lose to Hillary.

The reality is that Republican voters are energized.  People are paying attention to this campaign unlike any in the past.  Just look at the huge audience for the debates.  (Consider also the smaller audience for the Democrat debate.)  I know that the WaPo likes to portray Republicans as divided, warring and confused.  It does not make that the truth, however.  The reality that is that tired candidate of the past, Hillary Clinton, who makes dishonesty the centerpiece of her campaign, is the one who is going to lose.  Hey, maybe the Democrats can draft Mitt Romney as their candidate.  After all, they don't have anyone else.




 

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