Since it is only two days until Thanksgiving, there are many of us who are thinking about turkey. Sadly, today we need instead to think about Turkey. The Turkish military shot down a Russian bomber this morning. According to the Turks, the plane was in Turkish airspace and was warned ten times to leave before the shots were taken to down it. According to the Russians, the plane was in Syrian airspace and the attack was unprovoked and without warning. It's hard to believe the Russians since they normally lie in situations like this. For example, the Russians still don't admit to having troops in Ukraine. Nevertheless, this is a dangerous moment. Vladimir Putin is already raging in Moscow about this "stab in the back" and about Turkey's aid to ISIS terrorists.
Here, however, are a few things that are certain;
1. The Russian plane was not attacking ISIS. It was taking part in the offensive by Assad regime forces against its opponents in the region along the border with Turkey. These locals are, for the most part, ethnic Turks who are completely unaffiliated with ISIS. Russian and Iranian troops have also been part of the offensive together with the Assad forces.
2. Russia has made a habit of calling anyone who opposes Assad a "terrorist". The people being attacked, however, by the Assad forces are also at war with ISIS.
3. Russia may decide to use this event as a ploy to test NATO. Turkey is a NATO member state. As such, any attack by Russia on the Turks would require all NATO members to join in the defense of Turkey. Because it is unclear at the moment whether the Russian plane was over Turkey or over Syria, the NATO members could say that Turkey may have been the aggressor and back away from their commitments. Were that to happen, it would be the end of NATO as a deterrent. A Russian move against Turkey, however, brings Moscow to the brink of war with NATO, and that may be just too much of a risk for Putin to take. Sadly, with the US president being Obama, Putin may believe that he can do just about anything and then offer "talks" which Obama will jump to accept. This is a decisive moment for American influence and Russian power in the world. If Putin can demonstrate that NATO is a fiction, then American power and influence will suffer a tremendous blow. Let's hope it doesn't come to that.
Here, however, are a few things that are certain;
1. The Russian plane was not attacking ISIS. It was taking part in the offensive by Assad regime forces against its opponents in the region along the border with Turkey. These locals are, for the most part, ethnic Turks who are completely unaffiliated with ISIS. Russian and Iranian troops have also been part of the offensive together with the Assad forces.
2. Russia has made a habit of calling anyone who opposes Assad a "terrorist". The people being attacked, however, by the Assad forces are also at war with ISIS.
3. Russia may decide to use this event as a ploy to test NATO. Turkey is a NATO member state. As such, any attack by Russia on the Turks would require all NATO members to join in the defense of Turkey. Because it is unclear at the moment whether the Russian plane was over Turkey or over Syria, the NATO members could say that Turkey may have been the aggressor and back away from their commitments. Were that to happen, it would be the end of NATO as a deterrent. A Russian move against Turkey, however, brings Moscow to the brink of war with NATO, and that may be just too much of a risk for Putin to take. Sadly, with the US president being Obama, Putin may believe that he can do just about anything and then offer "talks" which Obama will jump to accept. This is a decisive moment for American influence and Russian power in the world. If Putin can demonstrate that NATO is a fiction, then American power and influence will suffer a tremendous blow. Let's hope it doesn't come to that.
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