In the last week, the mainstream media has been filled with stories about the possibility of a brokered Republican convention next summer. The GOP establishment in Washington is said to have met to discuss the possibility. After the stories started appearing in the mainstream media, the subject made its way to talk radio. Today we are hearing stories that Dr. Ben Carson may leave the GOP because of the discussion of there being a brokered convention. The problem with all this storyline, however, is that it is nothing more than a fantasy. It is just another of those fanciful stories put out by the media to try to split the Republicans and to discourage their voters.
Here's the reality. Not even a single delegate has yet been chosen for the Republican convention. The polling numbers for various candidates have been swinging up and down while others have held steady. That means that no one has any fix on how many delegates any of the candidates will get. Right now, Donald Trump is in the lead according to the polls, but we will need to see who the actual voters choose. You cannot plan for a brokered convention is you have no idea who will have the delegates. On top of that, the likelihood is that nearly all of the candidates will drop out of the race long before the convention. Look, for example, at a candidate like senator Rand Paul. At one time, he looked like a second-tier contender for the nomination. Now, he seems unlikely to even make it to the debate stage next week. He's unlikely to stay in the race in a quixotic effort to be president when he is also running for re-election to the senate. Look also at candidates like Pataki, Santorum, Huckabee, and Graham. Those four are not likely to ever get any delegates should they stay in the race. During the early primaries and caucuses all delegates are awarded on a proportional basis, but there nearly every state has a minimum of 15 or 20% of the vote before a candidate gets any delegates. In other words, if in one of those states Trump gets 35% of the vote, Crus gets 25%, Rubio gets 20% and the other votes are split among all the other candidates, only Trump, Cruz and Rubio get delegates who will be split in the same ratio as the votes the three received. These rules are going to award delegates to just a few of the candidates. Someone like Carly Fiorina or Chris Christie may get no delegates even if they stay in the race. Once these candidates go through a few primary or caucus battles without delegates, their funding will dry up and they will withdraw or become irrelevant.
By April, there won't necessarily be a clear winner in the race for the nomination, but there will be a much smaller field. By that time, there will be at most four candidates remaining, and there will more likely be only two leading candidates. At that point, the states that award all delegates to the winner statewide will have kicked in. The first winner-take-all state is Florida which may be an advantage for Marco Rubio. Other large states also fit into this category as well. For the contest to be left in a condition where a brokered convention remains possible, however, there would need to be no clear leader when the start of the convention is imminent. In other words, there would still have to be three or more viable candidates in June. That is something that is just not going to happen.
Instead of wasting time speculating about brokered conventions, the media ought to focus instead on the actual issues. Wouldn't it be nice to hear about the candidates views on the issues instead of about these fantasy process subjects? Of course, that is unlikely to happen. It's just not how the mainstream media works.
Here's the reality. Not even a single delegate has yet been chosen for the Republican convention. The polling numbers for various candidates have been swinging up and down while others have held steady. That means that no one has any fix on how many delegates any of the candidates will get. Right now, Donald Trump is in the lead according to the polls, but we will need to see who the actual voters choose. You cannot plan for a brokered convention is you have no idea who will have the delegates. On top of that, the likelihood is that nearly all of the candidates will drop out of the race long before the convention. Look, for example, at a candidate like senator Rand Paul. At one time, he looked like a second-tier contender for the nomination. Now, he seems unlikely to even make it to the debate stage next week. He's unlikely to stay in the race in a quixotic effort to be president when he is also running for re-election to the senate. Look also at candidates like Pataki, Santorum, Huckabee, and Graham. Those four are not likely to ever get any delegates should they stay in the race. During the early primaries and caucuses all delegates are awarded on a proportional basis, but there nearly every state has a minimum of 15 or 20% of the vote before a candidate gets any delegates. In other words, if in one of those states Trump gets 35% of the vote, Crus gets 25%, Rubio gets 20% and the other votes are split among all the other candidates, only Trump, Cruz and Rubio get delegates who will be split in the same ratio as the votes the three received. These rules are going to award delegates to just a few of the candidates. Someone like Carly Fiorina or Chris Christie may get no delegates even if they stay in the race. Once these candidates go through a few primary or caucus battles without delegates, their funding will dry up and they will withdraw or become irrelevant.
By April, there won't necessarily be a clear winner in the race for the nomination, but there will be a much smaller field. By that time, there will be at most four candidates remaining, and there will more likely be only two leading candidates. At that point, the states that award all delegates to the winner statewide will have kicked in. The first winner-take-all state is Florida which may be an advantage for Marco Rubio. Other large states also fit into this category as well. For the contest to be left in a condition where a brokered convention remains possible, however, there would need to be no clear leader when the start of the convention is imminent. In other words, there would still have to be three or more viable candidates in June. That is something that is just not going to happen.
Instead of wasting time speculating about brokered conventions, the media ought to focus instead on the actual issues. Wouldn't it be nice to hear about the candidates views on the issues instead of about these fantasy process subjects? Of course, that is unlikely to happen. It's just not how the mainstream media works.
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