The Reuters "rolling" 5 day poll of the Republican race for today has Trump at 35.5% and Rubio in second at 15.3%. That's a lead for Trump of just over 20%. As usual, the Trump supporters are trumpeting these numbers.
The Reuters poll is highly suspect in its methodology, but let's assume that it actually is valid. The numbers above are the averages for Trump and Rubio over the last five days. If you look at just the last day, the only period which came after Trump called for barring any Moslem from entering the USA, the numbers show something quite different. On that last day, Trump fell to 31.7% and Rubio rose to 18%, so the margin fell from more than 20% to 13.7%. That's a big move and we don't yet know if it is the start of an ongoing reduction in support for Trump.
To be clear, Trump is still ahead by double digits even in the last day's figures. We will need to see the results over the next week before we can tell how Trump's position on allowing Moslems to enter the country will affect his support.
The Reuters poll is highly suspect in its methodology, but let's assume that it actually is valid. The numbers above are the averages for Trump and Rubio over the last five days. If you look at just the last day, the only period which came after Trump called for barring any Moslem from entering the USA, the numbers show something quite different. On that last day, Trump fell to 31.7% and Rubio rose to 18%, so the margin fell from more than 20% to 13.7%. That's a big move and we don't yet know if it is the start of an ongoing reduction in support for Trump.
To be clear, Trump is still ahead by double digits even in the last day's figures. We will need to see the results over the next week before we can tell how Trump's position on allowing Moslems to enter the country will affect his support.
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