According to news reports, the Iraqis have retaken Ramadi from ISIS and now have complete control of the city. That is certainly good news, but so far we don't know how good. The key, you see, is what the people of Ramadi think. Ramadi is a large Sunni city in the main Sunni area of Iraq. The Iraqi troops who ousted ISIS are for the most part Shiites. ISIS, no matter how repellant its actions, is a Sunni group. So we are left with this big question: are the Sunni people who live in Ramadi happy to see ISIS ousted and replaced with Shiite forces of the Iraqi government?
The answer to this question will depend to a great extent on how the newly installed Iraqi army forces treat the locals. Just as the Sunnis do not like the Shiites, the Iraqi army troops, as Shiites, do not like the local Sunnis. If that enmity comes into play, the victory in Ramadi will be short lived. On the other hand, if the Iraqi forces treat the local citizens well and help them rebuild their city and their lives, then there should be a different outcome. During the surge in Iraq, it was critical to the success of the American forces that the Sunni tribes rose up to help oust the terrorists. If these same Sunni tribes come to see a common purpose with the Shiites who rule in Baghdad, we could get a similar outcome and the quick demise of ISIS. If not, the battle will just go on and on and on.
Right now, the Baghdad government is almost a vassal of Iran, which never, NEVER, wants to form alliances with Sunnis. If Baghdad can decide to ignore Iran on this one and take the better path, this can be a turning point. We will have to wait and see what choice is made.
The answer to this question will depend to a great extent on how the newly installed Iraqi army forces treat the locals. Just as the Sunnis do not like the Shiites, the Iraqi army troops, as Shiites, do not like the local Sunnis. If that enmity comes into play, the victory in Ramadi will be short lived. On the other hand, if the Iraqi forces treat the local citizens well and help them rebuild their city and their lives, then there should be a different outcome. During the surge in Iraq, it was critical to the success of the American forces that the Sunni tribes rose up to help oust the terrorists. If these same Sunni tribes come to see a common purpose with the Shiites who rule in Baghdad, we could get a similar outcome and the quick demise of ISIS. If not, the battle will just go on and on and on.
Right now, the Baghdad government is almost a vassal of Iran, which never, NEVER, wants to form alliances with Sunnis. If Baghdad can decide to ignore Iran on this one and take the better path, this can be a turning point. We will have to wait and see what choice is made.
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