Senator Lindsay Graham suspended his presidential bid today. (Excuse me while I yawn.) Graham's exit was not surprising; he had essentially no support. Graham was unlikely to get sufficient votes in Iowa or New Hampshire to get any delegates. Indeed, there was a real question if he would even get to 1% of the votes. His departure in those first two states should have no effect on the race. In South Carolina, which comes next on the schedule, Graham's exit could have a minor impact. In recent polling in South Carolina, Graham was averaging 2% of the vote. That's a terrible result given that it is Graham's home state. Nevertheless, that 2% will need to find a new candidate. The most likely recipient of those voters is Marco Rubio. Graham was outspoken in his criticism of both Donald Trump and Ted Cruz. Those who were voting for him are unlikely to go to either of those candidates. Graham's foreign policy positions which formed the main theme of his campaign are probably closest to those of Rubio.
It is unlikely that a 2% shift towards Rubio would change much in SC, and it is even more unlikely that Rubio will get the entire 2% that were supporting Graham. Still, it is a net positive for Rubio in South Carolina.
With Graham gone, one has to wonder: will Santorum, Pataki, Huckabee and Gilmore be far behind? For that matter will Rand Paul and John Kasich be around much longer?
It is unlikely that a 2% shift towards Rubio would change much in SC, and it is even more unlikely that Rubio will get the entire 2% that were supporting Graham. Still, it is a net positive for Rubio in South Carolina.
With Graham gone, one has to wonder: will Santorum, Pataki, Huckabee and Gilmore be far behind? For that matter will Rand Paul and John Kasich be around much longer?
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