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Thursday, June 9, 2016

The Latest PA Poll

Pennsylvania is a key state for 2016.  It's a long time supporter of Democrat presidential candidates.  It's also, however, a state that may be moving toward Donald Trump.  The latest poll released by PPP shows this clearly.  In a head to head match between Trump and Hillary Clinton, the result is a tie.  When the people polled were also asked about a race that included Jill Stein (the Green Party Candidate) and Gary Johnson (the Libertarian Party candidate), Clinton had a 1% lead over Trump, but that was still well within the margin of error.  The pollsters also found that Pennsylvanians have an unfavorable opinion of Clinton and Trump, indeed by almost the same margin.

The poll predates the hoopla surrounding Hillary clinching the Democrat nomination.  Nevertheless, it is yet another harbinger of the problem facing the Democrats for November.  We need to be clear here.  If Donald Trump wins in Pennsylvania, the chances are overwhelming he will win the presidency.  A win in PA pretty well means that Trump will also win in Ohio and Florida.  Those switches alone would almost certainly put Trump over the top.

It's a long way to November, so things can change.  We will find out soon enough.

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