Hawaii

A special election is underway in Hawaii to fill a Congressional vacancy. Strangely for Hawaii, the leading candidate according to the polls is a Republican. Hawaii has an electoral system under which everyonoe who wants to runs in one special election and the person with the most votes wins. Two liberal Democrats are running against each other and splitting the Democrat vote. While the percentage for the Republican is much higher than usual in this district, it is nowhere near a majority, but thanks to the split among Democrats, there might just be another Republican in the House soon. That would be very unusual. Since Hawaii became a state in 1960, there have only been two elections in which any Republican was elected to Congress. that makes the Republican success ratio 2 out of 50 or 4%. Actually, the ratio is even lower since there is more than one district in Hawaii and the best the Republicans have ever won is one of the two seats. It seems another omen in a year that is very good for the GOP.