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Friday, April 25, 2014

Obama Does Not Understand Russia

President Obama said yesterday that Vladimir Putin sees the world "through a Cold War prism".  That is not just wrong; it is a monumental error.  It equates Putin's conduct with a discredited Communist ideology.  The truth, however, is that Putin's present attempt to take control of Ukraine is in the grand tradition of Russian imperialism.  Putin's conduct is not an aberration; it is simply a continuation of Russian imperialist history.

For the last thousand years, the history of Russia and its predecessors has been one of expansion.  Probably the best date for the start of major Russian imperialism is 1547 when the first emperor or Tsar (the word comes from Caesar) was crowned.  Moving forward from that date, Russia was ever trying to expand its area at the expense of its neighbors.  The Russians moved east all the way to the Pacific.  They moved west until they hit the power of Germany and Austria.  They moved south against the Turks in a series of wars.  By 1914, Russia was one of the great empires of Europe along with Britain, France and Germany.  Then came World War I and the destruction of some empires (for example, Austria-Hungary and the Ottoman Empire).  Russia saw the overthrow of the Tsar and the installation of the Bolsheviks with their Communist ideology.  Russia lost a large swath of territory in Europe as nations like Poland, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania reappeared out of formerly Russian territory.  What did NOT change, however, was the Russian urge towards imperialism.  That stayed in place as strong as ever.  All that was modified was the expressed reason behind the imperialism.  Russia, as the Soviet Union, needed to grow to spread Communism, or so the people were told.  Whatever the reason, though, Russia still "needed" to grow.

The other empires of Europe continued on after World War I.  Indeed, for the most part the end of European imperialism did not come until the aftermath of World War II.  Following that war, Britain gave up India and nearly all of its other colonial outposts.  France had lost its empire by the early 1960s.  There was only one remaining European empire:  Russia -- or the Soviet Union as it was then known.  In the post war world, the USSR constantly railed against western imperialists, but it was the USSR that took over foreign nations.  The Soviets took control of Poland, Bulgaria, Czechoslovakia, Hungary, the Baltic states, Albania, Yugoslavia and other nations.  Decisions in those countries were made first in Moscow, not in their national capitals.  Every attempt to end Russian domination ended the same way:  the 1956 Soviet crushing of the Hungarian uprising, the 1968 Soviet crushing of the Prague Spring in Czechoslovakia, etc.  In 1979, Russia moved into Afghanistan in another imperial move. 

It is worth noting that in the rest of Europe the imperial tradition not only ended, but it was discredited.  To a great extent the demise of imperialism was the result of national exhaustion of both Britain and France as well as of leftist agitation in both of those countries.  The Russian communists, in fact, carried out their own imperialist ambitions in the guise of fighting against imperialism.  Moscow never sought self determination of people on a neighboring region.  They only sought to oust the influence of the formerly imperial powers so that it could be replaced by Russian (or Soviet) control.  But make no mistake about it; it was not enough for a country to be Communist--it had to be under control of Moscow.  China provides a good example of this phenomenon.  The Communist party won control of China in 1949, and for a while it was closely allied with and under the control of Moscow.  By the late 1960s, however, the Chinese had gone their own way and major tensions arose between Moscow and Beijing.  Indeed, in 1969, Russian and Chinese troops engaged in battles along the border between the two countries.  Russian imperialism wanted control of China even though the Chinese were Communists.

When the Soviet Union collapsed after it lost the Cold War, it also lost control of all sorts of imperial provinces and protectorates.  The nations of eastern Europe were freed.  The constituent "republics" of the Soviet Union were freed.  Russia was left with less than half of the former Soviet empire, but that did not end the impulse in Russia towards imperialism.  Since 1992, Russia has moved steadily back towards an imperial course of conduct.  This is not a Cold War point of view.  This is the traditional Russian point of view.

The Russian people and leaders were never re-educated to look with disapproval on imperialism.  Instead, these Russians -- like millions before them -- are constantly looking for ways to increase the size and scope of Russia and its control over its neighbors.

Obama needs to understand this historical Russian impulse.  Putin's actions are not a momentary interlude during which Cold War ideas make a short lived comeback.  The current Russian design on Ukraine is part of a thousand year old historical progression which will not soon disappear.  If Russian imperial designs are to be thwarted, then the USA needs to build structures capable of withstanding those designs over the long term.  Momentary sanctions and speeches will be of no effect.  The sooner Obama and his advisors realize this basic truth, the better off the world will be.




 

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