One of the big questions that keeps being ignored in the Obamacare discussions is how many people now have insurance as a result of the law. The president yesterday claimed that the number is 7.1 million people "who have signed up". We all know that this number includes people who have not and will not pay for insurance. We also all know that this number includes a great many people who already had insurance. The best estimate from the new RAND study is that just about one quarter to one third of the total are newly insured. That means that somewhere between 1.7 and 2.3 million people of this total gained insurance for the first time.
This calculation, however, does not end our investigation. In any normal year, there are many millions of people who get insured for the first time. Students who graduate from high school or college and go out on their own get insurance. People who decide that they need insurance for one reason or another get insurance. People who were previously on their parents' policies but who become to old to stay on any longer get their own insurance. Normally, this means that something in the area of 4.5 million people get policies for the first time in any particular year. So now we have to ask: how many of the 1.7 million to 2.3 newly insured on the exchanges are part of the 4.5 million who would have gotten newly insured even without Obamacare? In other words, did Obamacare do anything for the numbers of insured other than transfer the new insurance policies to the Obamacare exchanges as a source of sales? The truth is that we don't know. Surely, some of those who are newly insured on the exchanges would have gotten insurance elsewhere even without Obamacare, but we do not know the numbers of people that covers.
Until we know the answer to this question, it is impossible to fully evaluate what good, if any, that Obamacare has achieved.
This calculation, however, does not end our investigation. In any normal year, there are many millions of people who get insured for the first time. Students who graduate from high school or college and go out on their own get insurance. People who decide that they need insurance for one reason or another get insurance. People who were previously on their parents' policies but who become to old to stay on any longer get their own insurance. Normally, this means that something in the area of 4.5 million people get policies for the first time in any particular year. So now we have to ask: how many of the 1.7 million to 2.3 newly insured on the exchanges are part of the 4.5 million who would have gotten newly insured even without Obamacare? In other words, did Obamacare do anything for the numbers of insured other than transfer the new insurance policies to the Obamacare exchanges as a source of sales? The truth is that we don't know. Surely, some of those who are newly insured on the exchanges would have gotten insurance elsewhere even without Obamacare, but we do not know the numbers of people that covers.
Until we know the answer to this question, it is impossible to fully evaluate what good, if any, that Obamacare has achieved.
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