One figure regarding Obamacare that gets no mention in the media is the number of people each year who buy health insurance for the first time. This is too important a number for everyone to just ignore it. Remember, every year, with or without Obamacare, millions of folks reach their mid 60s and go on Medicare. These people give up their private health plans and become part of Medicare. Meanwhile, every year, with or without Obamacare, millions of other people reach the point in their lives where they need to buy health insurance. Some people graduate from school and need coverage. Some people who have gone without insurance in their 20s decide that it is time to get that coverage. Some people who have been uninsured take jobs that provide them with insurance coverage. It is this group which is the focus of this post.
Think about it. Millions of people bought insurance for the first time and that decision had nothing whatsoever to do with Obamacare. If one is trying to figure out what the impact of Obamacare has actually been, one has to first consider what would have been the situation absent the law. How many millions of people would have purchased coverage had the law not been in effect? In other words, of the eight million people who supposedly have signed up for policies, (1) how many of them had coverage that was cancelled due to the law, and (2) how many of them would have bought coverage whether or not the law was in effect? Without knowing these figures, there is simply no way to evaluate the effect of the law on this issue. Sure, we know that the law raised premiums for those without subsidies. We know that the law reduced availability of doctors and hospitals for those who bought coverage. We know that the out of pocket cost for people with policies has soared as deductibles have gone through the roof. Those, however, are different issues. Just focusing on the numbers of people who have purchased policies, however, we need the answers to the two questions above.
Think about it. Millions of people bought insurance for the first time and that decision had nothing whatsoever to do with Obamacare. If one is trying to figure out what the impact of Obamacare has actually been, one has to first consider what would have been the situation absent the law. How many millions of people would have purchased coverage had the law not been in effect? In other words, of the eight million people who supposedly have signed up for policies, (1) how many of them had coverage that was cancelled due to the law, and (2) how many of them would have bought coverage whether or not the law was in effect? Without knowing these figures, there is simply no way to evaluate the effect of the law on this issue. Sure, we know that the law raised premiums for those without subsidies. We know that the law reduced availability of doctors and hospitals for those who bought coverage. We know that the out of pocket cost for people with policies has soared as deductibles have gone through the roof. Those, however, are different issues. Just focusing on the numbers of people who have purchased policies, however, we need the answers to the two questions above.
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