I just read an article from Yahoo News explaining why Russia and Vladimir Putin are losing in Crimea. It is the kind of piece that could only appear on a site trying to make the disaster in Ukraine (especially the mishandling of the crisis by president Obama) look like it has actually gone well. The thesis of the author is that Crimea will suck resources from Russia that the country cannot afford to lose, that the Crimean affair will drive the rest of Ukraine into the arms of NATO and the EU, and that the Russian oil and gas revenues which power Moscow's economy will not be sufficient for Russia's needs. There was such a lack of insight in the story that I kept waiting for the author to tell us about how Putin visited Simferople (the capital of Crimea) and came home with a tee shirt that said "My army invaded a country and all they got me was this beautiful province."
The so called analysis in the Yahoo News piece is so shoddy that one would think that even that site would not have published it. For example, the Russian army did not invade Crimea until after the new government had made clear that it was going to sign an agreement with the EU. That has not changed, but the Ukraine that signs the agreement will be minus Crimea. Further, the oil and gas revenues that may prove insufficient for Moscow's needs are the same revenues that they would have been without the invasion. Nothing changed there either. There is no cause and effect relationship with these items.
On the other hand, Ukraine clearly has been neutered. There is zero chance right now that the Ukrainians will be able to become members of NATO. That is not because the Ukrainians are scared of Moscow. It is because the members of NATO are scared of Moscow, specifically because of the invasion of Crimea. Chalk up one major objective accomplished for Putin. Further, it is unlikely that Ukraine will become a full member of the EU; here too the reason is the fear engendered among the current EU memebers by Russia's attack.
The idea that Crimea will be a drain on Russia rather than an asset is likewise laughable. With Crimea, Russia picks up ports like Yalta which will help in trade with the rest of the world. More important, the chance that Russia will also get at least the eastern half of Ukraine with its 20 million people and fertile land is also greatly strengthened. This segment of the country would give the Russians a major economic boost.
The truth is that Russia has made a major gain by taking Crimea, particularly since the move has cost Moscow essentially nothing. A few stray and meaningless sanctions will not deter Putin and his forces. If America allows itself to be deluded into believing something to the contrary, we will soon find ourselves facing similar problems in places other than Ukraine. Delusion for an individual is a dangerous thing. Delusion for a nation may result in the destruction of that country and the loss of freedom. It has to be avoided. There may be different courses that can be chosen as America's path through this crisis. There facts, however, are not different, and the delusions being presented by some on the left only act to harm the chances for America to pass through the period unscathed.
The so called analysis in the Yahoo News piece is so shoddy that one would think that even that site would not have published it. For example, the Russian army did not invade Crimea until after the new government had made clear that it was going to sign an agreement with the EU. That has not changed, but the Ukraine that signs the agreement will be minus Crimea. Further, the oil and gas revenues that may prove insufficient for Moscow's needs are the same revenues that they would have been without the invasion. Nothing changed there either. There is no cause and effect relationship with these items.
On the other hand, Ukraine clearly has been neutered. There is zero chance right now that the Ukrainians will be able to become members of NATO. That is not because the Ukrainians are scared of Moscow. It is because the members of NATO are scared of Moscow, specifically because of the invasion of Crimea. Chalk up one major objective accomplished for Putin. Further, it is unlikely that Ukraine will become a full member of the EU; here too the reason is the fear engendered among the current EU memebers by Russia's attack.
The idea that Crimea will be a drain on Russia rather than an asset is likewise laughable. With Crimea, Russia picks up ports like Yalta which will help in trade with the rest of the world. More important, the chance that Russia will also get at least the eastern half of Ukraine with its 20 million people and fertile land is also greatly strengthened. This segment of the country would give the Russians a major economic boost.
The truth is that Russia has made a major gain by taking Crimea, particularly since the move has cost Moscow essentially nothing. A few stray and meaningless sanctions will not deter Putin and his forces. If America allows itself to be deluded into believing something to the contrary, we will soon find ourselves facing similar problems in places other than Ukraine. Delusion for an individual is a dangerous thing. Delusion for a nation may result in the destruction of that country and the loss of freedom. It has to be avoided. There may be different courses that can be chosen as America's path through this crisis. There facts, however, are not different, and the delusions being presented by some on the left only act to harm the chances for America to pass through the period unscathed.
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