It has been an oft used critique of one government or another that its people were playing checkers while its opponents were playing chess. The meaning is clear; the enemy was thinking ahead one, two or three moves in a complex situation, while the entity being criticized was focused only on the present and in a simplified way. I started to think about this analogy and how it applies to the current actions of president Obama and Russian president Vladimir Putin.
I have no choice; I have to reject the analogy. It is true that Putin may be playing chess; we cannot tell how well he is doing since he has no opponent. On the other hand, Obama is not playing checkers. Indeed, it is an insult to checker players everywhere to say such a thing. In truth, Obama is actually playing Russian Roulette. Each time he makes a move, he has about a 20% chance of dying and an 80% chance of moving forward to the next step. Unfortunately, the next move again involves the same 20% chance of dying. Even worse, since Putin is playing chess, Obama is the only one playing Russian Roulette. The result is inevitable unless Obama can suddenly change the nature of his game; Obama (and the USA) are going to lose. Putin will win since he is unopposed. In other words, 1) Assad will stay in power, 2) tens or hundreds of thousands more Syrians will die at the hands of the Assad regime, 3) the chemical weapons in Syria may or may not be reduced, but they will not be eliminated, 4) the United Nations will discuss the need for action in Syria but will actually do nothing meaningful at all, and 5) the world will see Obama as the foolish leader of a pitiful giant with two left feet. Oh, and those five things all assume that things do not go too badly for the USA.
The current mess is the worst American foreign policy disaster that I know of since ninety years ago when president Woodrow Wilson negotiated to create the League of Nations only to have the Senate refuse to ratify the treaty.
I have no choice; I have to reject the analogy. It is true that Putin may be playing chess; we cannot tell how well he is doing since he has no opponent. On the other hand, Obama is not playing checkers. Indeed, it is an insult to checker players everywhere to say such a thing. In truth, Obama is actually playing Russian Roulette. Each time he makes a move, he has about a 20% chance of dying and an 80% chance of moving forward to the next step. Unfortunately, the next move again involves the same 20% chance of dying. Even worse, since Putin is playing chess, Obama is the only one playing Russian Roulette. The result is inevitable unless Obama can suddenly change the nature of his game; Obama (and the USA) are going to lose. Putin will win since he is unopposed. In other words, 1) Assad will stay in power, 2) tens or hundreds of thousands more Syrians will die at the hands of the Assad regime, 3) the chemical weapons in Syria may or may not be reduced, but they will not be eliminated, 4) the United Nations will discuss the need for action in Syria but will actually do nothing meaningful at all, and 5) the world will see Obama as the foolish leader of a pitiful giant with two left feet. Oh, and those five things all assume that things do not go too badly for the USA.
The current mess is the worst American foreign policy disaster that I know of since ninety years ago when president Woodrow Wilson negotiated to create the League of Nations only to have the Senate refuse to ratify the treaty.
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