Let's consider events regarding Syria over the last three days.
1. First of all, remember that the Assad forces in Syria are on the offensive and are winning territory from the rebels. That means that as of this moment, it appears that time is on the side of Assad. It also means that Assad and his allies in Iran, Hezbollah and Russia want to make sure that nothing upsets the trajectory of events unfolding on the battlefront.
2. Syria has enormous stockpiles of chemical weapons. Until the last 24 hours, however, the Assad regime would not even acknowledge that these weapons existed. We know that the stockpiles of chemical weapons are spread across Syria in a great many locations. The weapons are under guard, but those allied with Assad claim that the rebels have captured some of the weapons. Whether or not that is true, the weapons cannot be moved without the cooperation of the rebels. A chemical weapons convoy would be an easy target, and it would be one that could spread death to the surrounding area were it hit in an attack.
3. President Obama has managed to bungle the policy of the USA towards Syria in every conceivable way. It is hard to imagine that an American president could move towards war without support from the UN Security Council, America's long time allies, Congress or the American people, but that is the course that Obama has chosen. Clearly, Obama knows that he is on a kamikaze run on Syria, but it seems that he had no idea how to change course.
4. The Russians do not want an America strike on the Assad forces. Despite John Kerry's claims that any strike would be "unbelievably small", the Russians know that the US Air Force could deliver a blow to Assad in just a day or so, from which Assad could be left staggering.
5. The Russian plan for Syria to turn over its chemical weapons is on designed to give Obama a chance to avoid defeat in Congress, to prevent an American attack on Syria, and to allow Assad to keep his chemical weapons while blaming the failure to turn the weapons over to the UN on the rebels. For Russia, this is a win-win.
6. To be clear, there will soon be negotiations and more negotiations about this Russian proposal. In the end, some sort of agreement will be reached, but it will never be carried out because the rebels will not agree. This will "force" Assad to keep the weapons in place. There may even be some destruction of a portion of Assad's stockpile, but it will be a small portion. The world press will blame the unreasonable rebels for their refusal to go along with the scheme. Remember that in order for the rebels to agree, they would have to agree to a cease fire. During any cease fire, Assad could move his heavy weapons into position to dominate any resumption of fighting, so the rebels basically have no choice. If they agree, they lose the war.
7. The only thing that America achieves by going along with this proposal is to get Obama off the hook, a position that he created all by himself. Obama looks like an amateur. Okay, let's be honest: Obama is an amateur and those around him are no better.
1. First of all, remember that the Assad forces in Syria are on the offensive and are winning territory from the rebels. That means that as of this moment, it appears that time is on the side of Assad. It also means that Assad and his allies in Iran, Hezbollah and Russia want to make sure that nothing upsets the trajectory of events unfolding on the battlefront.
2. Syria has enormous stockpiles of chemical weapons. Until the last 24 hours, however, the Assad regime would not even acknowledge that these weapons existed. We know that the stockpiles of chemical weapons are spread across Syria in a great many locations. The weapons are under guard, but those allied with Assad claim that the rebels have captured some of the weapons. Whether or not that is true, the weapons cannot be moved without the cooperation of the rebels. A chemical weapons convoy would be an easy target, and it would be one that could spread death to the surrounding area were it hit in an attack.
3. President Obama has managed to bungle the policy of the USA towards Syria in every conceivable way. It is hard to imagine that an American president could move towards war without support from the UN Security Council, America's long time allies, Congress or the American people, but that is the course that Obama has chosen. Clearly, Obama knows that he is on a kamikaze run on Syria, but it seems that he had no idea how to change course.
4. The Russians do not want an America strike on the Assad forces. Despite John Kerry's claims that any strike would be "unbelievably small", the Russians know that the US Air Force could deliver a blow to Assad in just a day or so, from which Assad could be left staggering.
5. The Russian plan for Syria to turn over its chemical weapons is on designed to give Obama a chance to avoid defeat in Congress, to prevent an American attack on Syria, and to allow Assad to keep his chemical weapons while blaming the failure to turn the weapons over to the UN on the rebels. For Russia, this is a win-win.
6. To be clear, there will soon be negotiations and more negotiations about this Russian proposal. In the end, some sort of agreement will be reached, but it will never be carried out because the rebels will not agree. This will "force" Assad to keep the weapons in place. There may even be some destruction of a portion of Assad's stockpile, but it will be a small portion. The world press will blame the unreasonable rebels for their refusal to go along with the scheme. Remember that in order for the rebels to agree, they would have to agree to a cease fire. During any cease fire, Assad could move his heavy weapons into position to dominate any resumption of fighting, so the rebels basically have no choice. If they agree, they lose the war.
7. The only thing that America achieves by going along with this proposal is to get Obama off the hook, a position that he created all by himself. Obama looks like an amateur. Okay, let's be honest: Obama is an amateur and those around him are no better.
No comments:
Post a Comment