So the news is out that the USA and Russia reached the outline of an agreement regarding what is to be done with Syria's chemical weapons. The key points are these: 1) Syria's chemical arsenal is to be destroyed. 2) By some time in November, inspectors are to have access to all those weapons so that a complete count can be taken. 3) By mid 2014, all of the chemical weapons must be destroyed. 4) The UN Security Council will pass a resolution to put this framework in place; should Syria fail to comply, there will be sanctions imposed, but no authorization for the use of force. This last point (number 4) was reached after president Obama agreed that he would give up having the UN approve the use of force against Syria.
So let's think about what was accomplished. First, let's look at what Russia got.
1. There was no attack on the forces of its ally Bashir al Assad.
2. There will be no threat of future attack on Assad's forces.
3. The chemical weapons which Russia surely does not want to fall into the hands of a Chechen terror group will be mostly destroyed. (Only a fool would assume that Assad will comply completely with the destruction order.)
4. Instead of being an international pariah for its support of the war criminal Assad, Russia is now the great peacemaker. Maybe Putin will get the Nobel Peace Prize.
5. Russia has been seen to push around the USA, a move which will help restore the status that the Russians lost after the dissolution of the USSR.
6. Most important, Assad is much more likely to stay in power with continuing help from Russia. This will keep the highly anti-Russian rebels from ousting the Russians from their naval base in Tartus. It will also undermine American influence in the area.
Now let's think about what the USA got.
1. Despite setting a red line, the crossing of which was to lead to severe consequences, president Obama did not take action against Assad.
2. America was shown to be devoid of allies who would support it in a move on Syria.
3. Obama's other Syria policy (Assad must go), has been thwarted.
4. Obama has been made to look like an amateur to the rest of the world.
5. America's allies around the world have their faith in the word of the USA and its president shaken.
6. Obama has been shown to be not in control even of the domestic political structures of his own political party. After all, the Democrat opposition to the Syria strike was coming in at about 75% against Obama's position.
7. Obama was shown to all the world to be weak and totally subservient to Putin. Day after day, Putin pushed for things which Obama ultimately agreed to do.
8. Obama went from setting red lines and threatening force to agreeing to give up the use of force at least until mid 2014, by which time Assad should be fully back in power in Syria.
9. On the good side, some of the Syrian chemical weapons will be destroyed.
10. Lastly, the chance that Israel will strike Iran's nuclear program rather than wait for America to act has risen dramatically. The Israelis saw Obama back off despite his express and repeated announcement that he would take action. Since the Iranian nukes are a threat to Israel's very existence, they are unlikely to gamble their lives on the promises of someone as clearly unreliable as Obama. On a side note, I doubt that it was lost on the Israelis that the agreement framework was reached on Yom Kippur, the holiest day of the Jewish calendar, a day on which repentance is emphasize and reliance on the mercy of God is a major theme. Relying on God rather than America seems to be today's message.
In summary, this has been a great victory for the Russians and Putin. It has been an unmitigated disaster for the USA and Obama.
So let's think about what was accomplished. First, let's look at what Russia got.
1. There was no attack on the forces of its ally Bashir al Assad.
2. There will be no threat of future attack on Assad's forces.
3. The chemical weapons which Russia surely does not want to fall into the hands of a Chechen terror group will be mostly destroyed. (Only a fool would assume that Assad will comply completely with the destruction order.)
4. Instead of being an international pariah for its support of the war criminal Assad, Russia is now the great peacemaker. Maybe Putin will get the Nobel Peace Prize.
5. Russia has been seen to push around the USA, a move which will help restore the status that the Russians lost after the dissolution of the USSR.
6. Most important, Assad is much more likely to stay in power with continuing help from Russia. This will keep the highly anti-Russian rebels from ousting the Russians from their naval base in Tartus. It will also undermine American influence in the area.
Now let's think about what the USA got.
1. Despite setting a red line, the crossing of which was to lead to severe consequences, president Obama did not take action against Assad.
2. America was shown to be devoid of allies who would support it in a move on Syria.
3. Obama's other Syria policy (Assad must go), has been thwarted.
4. Obama has been made to look like an amateur to the rest of the world.
5. America's allies around the world have their faith in the word of the USA and its president shaken.
6. Obama has been shown to be not in control even of the domestic political structures of his own political party. After all, the Democrat opposition to the Syria strike was coming in at about 75% against Obama's position.
7. Obama was shown to all the world to be weak and totally subservient to Putin. Day after day, Putin pushed for things which Obama ultimately agreed to do.
8. Obama went from setting red lines and threatening force to agreeing to give up the use of force at least until mid 2014, by which time Assad should be fully back in power in Syria.
9. On the good side, some of the Syrian chemical weapons will be destroyed.
10. Lastly, the chance that Israel will strike Iran's nuclear program rather than wait for America to act has risen dramatically. The Israelis saw Obama back off despite his express and repeated announcement that he would take action. Since the Iranian nukes are a threat to Israel's very existence, they are unlikely to gamble their lives on the promises of someone as clearly unreliable as Obama. On a side note, I doubt that it was lost on the Israelis that the agreement framework was reached on Yom Kippur, the holiest day of the Jewish calendar, a day on which repentance is emphasize and reliance on the mercy of God is a major theme. Relying on God rather than America seems to be today's message.
In summary, this has been a great victory for the Russians and Putin. It has been an unmitigated disaster for the USA and Obama.
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