NBC held its Commander in Chief Forum on Wednesday and both Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump answered questions about national security and military matters. Did it matter? It looks like the answer is yes.
First of all, there were a series of polls in which Trump was adjudged the victor in the event, but these were internet polls. Such polls cannot be considered scientific, so they are of little value. They are of interest nevertheless.
More important are the more normal polls and their reaction to the event. We have data from two tracking polls: the LA Times and UPI. Both polls have their flaws but they still indicate the trend in the electorate reasonably well. In the LA Times poll, Trump got a clear bounce up after the forum. His support rose just over 1% in the LA Times poll. The same happened in the UPI poll. In the UPI poll Hillary's support fell 1.2% and Trump's rose 1.1%. It's important to remember the structure of these polls in considering these numbers. They are tracking polls, so they cover the previous five days. For Trump to gain 1% in a day, he actually has to gain 5% in one day. That's a 5% gain compared to where he was six days ago.
The jump in these polls say that the forum made a positive difference for Trump. It will most likely fade, but the issue we will have to see is how much of a sustained difference it will make, if any.
First of all, there were a series of polls in which Trump was adjudged the victor in the event, but these were internet polls. Such polls cannot be considered scientific, so they are of little value. They are of interest nevertheless.
More important are the more normal polls and their reaction to the event. We have data from two tracking polls: the LA Times and UPI. Both polls have their flaws but they still indicate the trend in the electorate reasonably well. In the LA Times poll, Trump got a clear bounce up after the forum. His support rose just over 1% in the LA Times poll. The same happened in the UPI poll. In the UPI poll Hillary's support fell 1.2% and Trump's rose 1.1%. It's important to remember the structure of these polls in considering these numbers. They are tracking polls, so they cover the previous five days. For Trump to gain 1% in a day, he actually has to gain 5% in one day. That's a 5% gain compared to where he was six days ago.
The jump in these polls say that the forum made a positive difference for Trump. It will most likely fade, but the issue we will have to see is how much of a sustained difference it will make, if any.
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