Joe Biden held his campaign relaunch yesterday in Philadelphia. They called it the "formal launch" of the campaign, thereby relegating the first launch of the campaign about a month ago to "informal" status. This time, Biden had a speech that sounded like someone who spoke English as a first language had written it for him. At the first informal launch, much of the speech rambled on and on and came dangerously close to incoherence. But Biden still had problems.
The biggest problem Biden faces is lack of enthusiasm. Consider this. Biden's formal launch came in the middle of a metro area with nearly seven million people, and he only drew 6000 according to the rather friendly crowd estimates from the police. That's really poor. Amy Klobuchar drew 9,000 to her launch in a much smaller city and it took place outdoors during a snowstorm. None of the rallies held by President Trump during his time in office have had a crowd as small as Biden got for his formal launch.
We all know that crowd size is not the final word on how a candidate will do at the polls. Still, Biden's team had a month to prepare this "formal" launch and to generate publicity designed to draw supporters to the event. Philadelphia is an extremely Democrat city, and there are something like 400,000 people who live within walking distance of the site of the rally. It was a nice sunny day but not too hot, perfect weather for a rally like this. So why did Biden get fewer people than came out when Pete Buttigieg launched his campaign in South Bend, a city with just 120,000 people?
Biden, right now, is way ahead in the polls, but is there really anyone out there who actually wants him to be president? Okay there's Jill Biden, excuse me, Dr. Jill Biden who supports her husband. No doubt Biden's son wants his father in office; he must be contemplating all those deals with China or Ukraine that he can arrange using the influence of his father's position. That's two. Is there anyone else?
I talk to a great many people about their political preferences. Among Democrats, I have yet to find one that wants Biden. I have spoken to two who told me that they preferred Warren or Harris, but that they would vote for Biden in the primary is their first and second choices dropped out.
My guess is that Biden is not going to be here for the long haul. He seems right now to have the same sort of support that Hillary Clinton had in 2008 and 2016. For Hillary, she was viewed as the inevitable nominee. The first time, as soon as Obama beat her in Iowa, her support dropped dramatically. In 2016 she had to struggle mightily to hold off Bernie Sanders who is not exactly Mr. Personality. I'm expecting Biden to be this year's Hillary. If someone comes up and wins in Iowa other than Biden, his support will collapse. He will be the front runner in the same way that Jeb Bush was the 2016 Republican front runner.
Look, this is politics and things change. I know that. Nevertheless, I can't see the lack of enthusiasm for Biden changing. People know old Joe pretty well. He isn't going to light a fire. He is going to be himself. He's going to continue to grope women. He's going to continue to look old and haggard. he's going to continue to wander off topic during his speeches and to make little sense when he does. Most of all, Biden is going to become the target of all the other Democrat candidates. They will ask him why he fought against desegregation in the 1970s. They will ask him why he advocated so clearly for a border wall just a few years ago. They will ask him about Anita Hill; Biden says he always believed her, so why did he vote to confirm Clarence Thomas? There's a lot more, but he's going to have to give answers for these and other questions, and he can't slough off the questions because they come from racist, sexist, homophobic, Islamophobic, anti-Semitic Republicans. No smear of the questioner will work. Biden will be faced with questions that he just cannot answer. Without a well of enthusiasm, Biden is going to lose support with each attack.
If I haven't been clear, let me say it this way: Biden is most likely NOT going to be the nominee.
The biggest problem Biden faces is lack of enthusiasm. Consider this. Biden's formal launch came in the middle of a metro area with nearly seven million people, and he only drew 6000 according to the rather friendly crowd estimates from the police. That's really poor. Amy Klobuchar drew 9,000 to her launch in a much smaller city and it took place outdoors during a snowstorm. None of the rallies held by President Trump during his time in office have had a crowd as small as Biden got for his formal launch.
We all know that crowd size is not the final word on how a candidate will do at the polls. Still, Biden's team had a month to prepare this "formal" launch and to generate publicity designed to draw supporters to the event. Philadelphia is an extremely Democrat city, and there are something like 400,000 people who live within walking distance of the site of the rally. It was a nice sunny day but not too hot, perfect weather for a rally like this. So why did Biden get fewer people than came out when Pete Buttigieg launched his campaign in South Bend, a city with just 120,000 people?
Biden, right now, is way ahead in the polls, but is there really anyone out there who actually wants him to be president? Okay there's Jill Biden, excuse me, Dr. Jill Biden who supports her husband. No doubt Biden's son wants his father in office; he must be contemplating all those deals with China or Ukraine that he can arrange using the influence of his father's position. That's two. Is there anyone else?
I talk to a great many people about their political preferences. Among Democrats, I have yet to find one that wants Biden. I have spoken to two who told me that they preferred Warren or Harris, but that they would vote for Biden in the primary is their first and second choices dropped out.
My guess is that Biden is not going to be here for the long haul. He seems right now to have the same sort of support that Hillary Clinton had in 2008 and 2016. For Hillary, she was viewed as the inevitable nominee. The first time, as soon as Obama beat her in Iowa, her support dropped dramatically. In 2016 she had to struggle mightily to hold off Bernie Sanders who is not exactly Mr. Personality. I'm expecting Biden to be this year's Hillary. If someone comes up and wins in Iowa other than Biden, his support will collapse. He will be the front runner in the same way that Jeb Bush was the 2016 Republican front runner.
Look, this is politics and things change. I know that. Nevertheless, I can't see the lack of enthusiasm for Biden changing. People know old Joe pretty well. He isn't going to light a fire. He is going to be himself. He's going to continue to grope women. He's going to continue to look old and haggard. he's going to continue to wander off topic during his speeches and to make little sense when he does. Most of all, Biden is going to become the target of all the other Democrat candidates. They will ask him why he fought against desegregation in the 1970s. They will ask him why he advocated so clearly for a border wall just a few years ago. They will ask him about Anita Hill; Biden says he always believed her, so why did he vote to confirm Clarence Thomas? There's a lot more, but he's going to have to give answers for these and other questions, and he can't slough off the questions because they come from racist, sexist, homophobic, Islamophobic, anti-Semitic Republicans. No smear of the questioner will work. Biden will be faced with questions that he just cannot answer. Without a well of enthusiasm, Biden is going to lose support with each attack.
If I haven't been clear, let me say it this way: Biden is most likely NOT going to be the nominee.
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