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Sunday, May 5, 2019

Is the Public Just Biden It's Time? -- Update on Polling

Earlier today, I posted the results of a new poll that shows Joe Biden ahead by more than 30 points in the race for the Dem nomination.  I mocked the poll as ridiculous, and I've gotten something of a pushback in my email.  Why would I say such a think, they ask.  Here's a pretty good example why:

Yesterday, in South Carolina, Joe Biden held his first rally in the state.  Only a few hundred people showed up.  By contrast, President Trump drew tens of thousands to his last rally (in Green Bay Wisconsin.)  But it's not just the crowd size.  Biden told the "throng" that he had been contacted by 14 different heads of other countries who called to voice "concern" about President Trump.  Really, Joe?  Fourteen presidents and prime ministers call YOU to discuss President Trump?  Biden went on to list some of these world leaders.  One of the few he identified was "Margaret Thatcher".

Do you remember Margaret Thatcher?  She was the prime minister of the UK from 1979 until the early 1990's.  Sadly, she died years ago.  That call to Joe Biden to discuss Trump must have been really special.

To be fair, someone must have gotten word to Biden that he had made this mistake.  He corrected himself later in the speech to say that he meant the current British prime minister May.  Anyone can make a mistake like this, but when you're getting as old a Biden is, people start wondering about the onset of senility.

But that's not the end of yesterday's speech.  Biden also condemned President Trump for calling his opponents names.  It just isn't presidential, and America does not want or deserve to have a leader who does such a thing, or so old Joe said.  About two minutes later, though, old Joe told the crowd that President Trump is "an S.O.B."  Then he called Trump a "clown".  Joe can't even keep his message straight during a short speech.

One bad appearance is not going to kill Biden's campaign; that's for sure.  The problem, though, is that this is not an isolated event.  So far, Biden has generated next to no excitement.  Worse still for Biden, he has struggled to get through his speeches without making errors and stumbling on words and phrases.  He's starting to make Nancy Pelosi look young and vigorous.

It's just a matter of time before that perception becomes more and more widespread and Biden's poll numbers go lower and lower.  Right now, for me the question is not whether Biden will be the nominee, but rather whether he will still be in the race after Super Tuesday in 2020.  In a normal year, he would never survive, but considering his competition in the Democrat race, he may limp forward.

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