Things are heating up with Iran. We know that in the last ten days a lot has happened.
1. The USA sent an aircraft carrier strike group to the waters off Iran. At the same time, the Air Force moved a fleet of B-52 bombers to the region. America also sent Patriot missile batteries to the region.
2. The Iranians moved short range ballistic missiles onto small boats. This was seen in satellite surveillance. No one knows for certain (or at least they're not saying) why this move was made. The Iranians could be planning to launch the missiles from moving boats. Or, the Iranians might just be moving the missiles by sea to new locations.
3. The Secretary of State Mike Pompeo warned Iran not to confuse America's patience with a lack of resolve. And attack will be met with overwhelming force in response. That sort of talk is never a good sign.
4. Media in the region is busy reporting that the Iranians had made plans to strike at American troops based in the region but then abandoned those plans when the US moved more firepower to the region. The same media says that the current target is Saudi oil facilities. By striking such targets, Iran could cause world oil prices to soar thereby hurting the USA and helping itself in selling oil. Other media says that the Iranians are planning to target Israel, either by itself of more likely through the terrorist groups Iran controls, Hezbollah and Islamic Jihad.
5. US forces in the region have warned local shipping (including oil tankers) that Iran may be planning to attack commercial targets like shipping.
6. Supposedly, there is a major debate going on inside Iran about whether or not it would be suicidal to take on the US military.
7. Again supposedly, the USA has very good intelligence about the intentions of the Iranians. This was brought to the US about a week ago by the Israeli intelligence agency Mossad.
8. President Trump has said that we have a lot of information that most people don't want to know about. He also told Iran to call him to reopen negotiations on the nuclear deal.
Putting all this together isn't easy. It may be nothing more than another false alarm -- I certainly hope so. But what if this is real and Iran launches a major attack of some sort? What happens then?
The answer most likely depends on the target. If Iranian forces actually attack American troops, the response will be swift and overwhelming. President Trump will not spend weeks agonizing about what to do the way Obama used to. He will not wait to go to Congress before responding to defend our forces. Iran will have brought about its ruin.
If the Iranians use missiles to attack commercial ships, my prediction is that US airpower will take out shore batteries, missile launching sites and naval facilities in Iran. It may take some time, but America will destroy the offensive capability of the Iranian forces.
We the Iranians to actually get missiles through the US defenses so as to hit one of our naval ships, the response will be even stronger. After an unprovoked attack on our navy, Trump will respond but, no doubt, will also ask Congress for a declaration of war.
On the other hand, were the Iranians to attack the Saudis or the Israelis, America's response will be more measured. There will still be a major price paid by the Iranians, but the end goal won't be regime change in Iran, just appropriate retribution.
I'm often told that I tend to use this site to overstate dangers of this sort. There is no way, however, to overstate the current danger. Nothing may happen, but if the Iranians miscalculate and take on the USA, the result will not be pretty. Let's hope that cooler heads prevail in Teheran.
1. The USA sent an aircraft carrier strike group to the waters off Iran. At the same time, the Air Force moved a fleet of B-52 bombers to the region. America also sent Patriot missile batteries to the region.
2. The Iranians moved short range ballistic missiles onto small boats. This was seen in satellite surveillance. No one knows for certain (or at least they're not saying) why this move was made. The Iranians could be planning to launch the missiles from moving boats. Or, the Iranians might just be moving the missiles by sea to new locations.
3. The Secretary of State Mike Pompeo warned Iran not to confuse America's patience with a lack of resolve. And attack will be met with overwhelming force in response. That sort of talk is never a good sign.
4. Media in the region is busy reporting that the Iranians had made plans to strike at American troops based in the region but then abandoned those plans when the US moved more firepower to the region. The same media says that the current target is Saudi oil facilities. By striking such targets, Iran could cause world oil prices to soar thereby hurting the USA and helping itself in selling oil. Other media says that the Iranians are planning to target Israel, either by itself of more likely through the terrorist groups Iran controls, Hezbollah and Islamic Jihad.
5. US forces in the region have warned local shipping (including oil tankers) that Iran may be planning to attack commercial targets like shipping.
6. Supposedly, there is a major debate going on inside Iran about whether or not it would be suicidal to take on the US military.
7. Again supposedly, the USA has very good intelligence about the intentions of the Iranians. This was brought to the US about a week ago by the Israeli intelligence agency Mossad.
8. President Trump has said that we have a lot of information that most people don't want to know about. He also told Iran to call him to reopen negotiations on the nuclear deal.
Putting all this together isn't easy. It may be nothing more than another false alarm -- I certainly hope so. But what if this is real and Iran launches a major attack of some sort? What happens then?
The answer most likely depends on the target. If Iranian forces actually attack American troops, the response will be swift and overwhelming. President Trump will not spend weeks agonizing about what to do the way Obama used to. He will not wait to go to Congress before responding to defend our forces. Iran will have brought about its ruin.
If the Iranians use missiles to attack commercial ships, my prediction is that US airpower will take out shore batteries, missile launching sites and naval facilities in Iran. It may take some time, but America will destroy the offensive capability of the Iranian forces.
We the Iranians to actually get missiles through the US defenses so as to hit one of our naval ships, the response will be even stronger. After an unprovoked attack on our navy, Trump will respond but, no doubt, will also ask Congress for a declaration of war.
On the other hand, were the Iranians to attack the Saudis or the Israelis, America's response will be more measured. There will still be a major price paid by the Iranians, but the end goal won't be regime change in Iran, just appropriate retribution.
I'm often told that I tend to use this site to overstate dangers of this sort. There is no way, however, to overstate the current danger. Nothing may happen, but if the Iranians miscalculate and take on the USA, the result will not be pretty. Let's hope that cooler heads prevail in Teheran.
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