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Saturday, May 18, 2019

So Will There Be War With Iran?

Here's the short answer:  NO.

Here's the longer explanation:

President Trump has been applying increasing pressure on Iran to try to get a reasonable result in which Iran does not get nukes.  Trump pulled the USA out of the Obama negotiated deal that guaranteed Iran nukes in another six years from now.  The mullahs are not happy with this.  They have been announcing their annoyance for a year or more.  Recently, intelligence learned that Iran was preparing for a possible strike on American targets in the region.  As a result, the Navy sent an aircraft carrier and its battle group to the Persian Gulf.  Non-essential American civilians were also told to leave Iraq, a place where they would likely be targets of any Iranian attack.  Just two days ago, Iranian forces were seen loading anti-ship missiles onto small boats, something that could presage an asymmetrical attack on American shipping.

Despite all of this, the Iranians don't want a war.  They know that the USA has the ability to destroy Iran's military forces and bring down its theocracy.  The Iranian regime wants to survive.

On top of this the USA doesn't want a war.  President Trump has made clear for years that he thinks the worst thing for America would be yet another foreign war in the Middle East.  Nothing he has done suggests that he supports actually going to war.

Nevertheless, the media keeps pushing the line that the President is trying to start a war.  Sometimes, they tell us that John Bolton the National Security Adviser wants a war.  None of this is true.  Indeed, there is no support for any of it.

So, since neither sides wants a war, the logical conclusion is that there won't be one.

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