It's interesting that there are so many polls among the Democrat candidates for president. Old Joe Biden is in the lead, and that hasn't changed much over time. At the beginning of March, Biden was averaging about 31% support among Democrats. After that he made his formal announcement that he was entering the race. That gave him the expected short term bounce, but that has mostly dissipated now. In the last five polls, Old Joe has averaged just under 35% support. That's not much higher than the early March average.
The big change is with Bernie Sanders. In early the March polls, Bernie was getting support from just slightly few voters than Biden. Sanders was averaging just over 27% at that point. Then he came out for guaranteeing the vote to felons in prison including specifically people like the convicted Boston Marathon bomber. Even for some of the nut job leftists, that was too far out to accept. As a result, in the latest polls, Bernie is averaging just over 15%. That's a 12 point loss. That loss is bigger than the total support for any of the other candidates (other than Biden).
Over the same time period, two other candidates have had some success. Elizabeth Warren has picked up enough support to get to third place. She is still at just about 10% support, however. There don't seem to be enough angry white women Democrats to put her over the top. Pete Buttigieg has gone from almost no support to 6%. Mayor Pete, however, went first up to nearly 9%; then dropped back after people started to see and hear more of him.
Some candidates have stayed in the also ran columns. Booker, Gillibrand, Castro, Gabbard, Ryan and others get the same minuscule support all along.
The real question, though, is who will get the support when Biden implodes. You know, when Old Joe makes a major gaffe (which is inevitable), where will his support go. That's a question to which we don't yet have the answer.
The big change is with Bernie Sanders. In early the March polls, Bernie was getting support from just slightly few voters than Biden. Sanders was averaging just over 27% at that point. Then he came out for guaranteeing the vote to felons in prison including specifically people like the convicted Boston Marathon bomber. Even for some of the nut job leftists, that was too far out to accept. As a result, in the latest polls, Bernie is averaging just over 15%. That's a 12 point loss. That loss is bigger than the total support for any of the other candidates (other than Biden).
Over the same time period, two other candidates have had some success. Elizabeth Warren has picked up enough support to get to third place. She is still at just about 10% support, however. There don't seem to be enough angry white women Democrats to put her over the top. Pete Buttigieg has gone from almost no support to 6%. Mayor Pete, however, went first up to nearly 9%; then dropped back after people started to see and hear more of him.
Some candidates have stayed in the also ran columns. Booker, Gillibrand, Castro, Gabbard, Ryan and others get the same minuscule support all along.
The real question, though, is who will get the support when Biden implodes. You know, when Old Joe makes a major gaffe (which is inevitable), where will his support go. That's a question to which we don't yet have the answer.
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