One thing that gets essentially no coverage in the mainstream media is the question of how minorities will vote in 2020. The "experts" put forward by the media all seem just to assume that blacks will vote by the same overwhelming numbers for the Democrats, Hispanics will break totally for the Dems as well and other minorities will follow suit, but is that correct?
This is not a question of minor importance. If the African Americans split their votes with "only" 80% for the Democrats and 20% for the GOP, it almost guarantees a Republican victory. Similarly, were Hispanics to favor the Republicans, it would spell doom for the Democrats. And if Jews were to abandon the Dems, it would make a major difference in a few states. These questions are not explored by the media and it seems to me that the pundits are almost afraid to mention the subject. After all, why plant the idea that there's trouble brewing on this front for the Democrat nominee.
Let's start with a few relevant facts.
1. African American unemployment is at one of the lowest levels ever. Business formation by African Americans is at the highest level ever. The median income level for blacks is rising faster than for whites (and both are rising much faster than they ever did under Obama.) Things are going well economically for this group.
2. Blacks are the most conservative group among the parts of the Democrats coalition. Most polling shows that a sizeable chunk of this group is pro-life and strongly so.
3. Hispanic unemployment is at the lowest level ever recorded. Things are going well economically for this group as well. According to polling Hispanics are the second most conservative group in the Democrats coalition.
4. Jews are getting hit with anti-Semitism at a rate not seen in the USA since World War II. Much of that anti-Semitism comes from the far left. Prominent Democrats like Congressmen Ilhan Omar, Alexandria Ocasio Cortez and Rashida Tlaib keep spouting anti-Semitic statements, and the Democrats weren't even able to condemn those statements because of push back from the far left. President Trump has been the most pro-Israel president in decades if not ever. After 8 years of Obama bashing Israel, the contrast is extremely marked.
5. The Democrats and the media keep pushing the line that Trump and the Republicans are racists who hate Hispanics and Jews as well. It's the old attack line that the Democrats have used since the 1960s when it was Democrats who opposed desegregation and Republicans who passed the civil rights legislation. The GOP got these measures passed over strident Democrat opposition, and by five years later, the Democrats had adopted the attack line that they were the party of equality while the Republican were racists, bigots etc. The media repeated this, and it has continued ever since.
Given these facts, will it make a difference in 2020? Can Bernie Sanders, for example, do well among minorities in a general election? How would Kamala Harris or Elizabeth Warren fare? And would old Joe Biden appeal to minorities?
There are not many ways to judge where things are heading in this regard because the media avoids the topic at all costs. We do know that in the never ending stream of job approval polls for the President, the results contain some rather major surprises for the mainstream media. In many of these polls, job approval for Trump by blacks comes in at about 25%. That may sound terrible for Trump, but it is actually extremely good for this group. There have been two or three polls of this sort in which Trump's approval among blacks has actually been higher than Trump's approval among all self-identified Democrats. Remember, if 25% of blacks think Trump is doing a good job, those are voters who would seriously consider voting for Trump on election day. Not all would do so, of course, but remember, if Trump could get just 20% of the black vote, he wins the election easily. To put it in proper context, if Trump took 20% of the black vote in 2016, he would have won the popular vote and carried additional states.
Another bit of information that's worth noting is that among Hispanics, Trump's approval numbers are close to 50% in many polls. Even in polling with regard to illegal aliens, Hispanics seem to support the President's position in about the same numbers as non-Hispanics.
Then there are the movements like Blexit which is the black exit from the Democrat Party. People like Candace Owens are barnstorming the country pushing this phenomenon. Owens often speaks to white Republicans, but just as often she speaks to black groups under the radar. All we ever hear about are protests on college campuses by far left groups who seek to silence her, but for each one of those, she speaks a ten other events or more. The Blexit message is getting out. Just look at the reaction when Kanye West spoke out in support of Trump. The white liberals can attack the bona fides of Owens, but West is above successful attack on that basis.
We won't know for real how successful the effort has been until the fall of 2020 when realistic polling of the presidential race can take place. At that point, however, don't be surprised if you learn that Trump has the race locked up because of his minority support.
This is not a question of minor importance. If the African Americans split their votes with "only" 80% for the Democrats and 20% for the GOP, it almost guarantees a Republican victory. Similarly, were Hispanics to favor the Republicans, it would spell doom for the Democrats. And if Jews were to abandon the Dems, it would make a major difference in a few states. These questions are not explored by the media and it seems to me that the pundits are almost afraid to mention the subject. After all, why plant the idea that there's trouble brewing on this front for the Democrat nominee.
Let's start with a few relevant facts.
1. African American unemployment is at one of the lowest levels ever. Business formation by African Americans is at the highest level ever. The median income level for blacks is rising faster than for whites (and both are rising much faster than they ever did under Obama.) Things are going well economically for this group.
2. Blacks are the most conservative group among the parts of the Democrats coalition. Most polling shows that a sizeable chunk of this group is pro-life and strongly so.
3. Hispanic unemployment is at the lowest level ever recorded. Things are going well economically for this group as well. According to polling Hispanics are the second most conservative group in the Democrats coalition.
4. Jews are getting hit with anti-Semitism at a rate not seen in the USA since World War II. Much of that anti-Semitism comes from the far left. Prominent Democrats like Congressmen Ilhan Omar, Alexandria Ocasio Cortez and Rashida Tlaib keep spouting anti-Semitic statements, and the Democrats weren't even able to condemn those statements because of push back from the far left. President Trump has been the most pro-Israel president in decades if not ever. After 8 years of Obama bashing Israel, the contrast is extremely marked.
5. The Democrats and the media keep pushing the line that Trump and the Republicans are racists who hate Hispanics and Jews as well. It's the old attack line that the Democrats have used since the 1960s when it was Democrats who opposed desegregation and Republicans who passed the civil rights legislation. The GOP got these measures passed over strident Democrat opposition, and by five years later, the Democrats had adopted the attack line that they were the party of equality while the Republican were racists, bigots etc. The media repeated this, and it has continued ever since.
Given these facts, will it make a difference in 2020? Can Bernie Sanders, for example, do well among minorities in a general election? How would Kamala Harris or Elizabeth Warren fare? And would old Joe Biden appeal to minorities?
There are not many ways to judge where things are heading in this regard because the media avoids the topic at all costs. We do know that in the never ending stream of job approval polls for the President, the results contain some rather major surprises for the mainstream media. In many of these polls, job approval for Trump by blacks comes in at about 25%. That may sound terrible for Trump, but it is actually extremely good for this group. There have been two or three polls of this sort in which Trump's approval among blacks has actually been higher than Trump's approval among all self-identified Democrats. Remember, if 25% of blacks think Trump is doing a good job, those are voters who would seriously consider voting for Trump on election day. Not all would do so, of course, but remember, if Trump could get just 20% of the black vote, he wins the election easily. To put it in proper context, if Trump took 20% of the black vote in 2016, he would have won the popular vote and carried additional states.
Another bit of information that's worth noting is that among Hispanics, Trump's approval numbers are close to 50% in many polls. Even in polling with regard to illegal aliens, Hispanics seem to support the President's position in about the same numbers as non-Hispanics.
Then there are the movements like Blexit which is the black exit from the Democrat Party. People like Candace Owens are barnstorming the country pushing this phenomenon. Owens often speaks to white Republicans, but just as often she speaks to black groups under the radar. All we ever hear about are protests on college campuses by far left groups who seek to silence her, but for each one of those, she speaks a ten other events or more. The Blexit message is getting out. Just look at the reaction when Kanye West spoke out in support of Trump. The white liberals can attack the bona fides of Owens, but West is above successful attack on that basis.
We won't know for real how successful the effort has been until the fall of 2020 when realistic polling of the presidential race can take place. At that point, however, don't be surprised if you learn that Trump has the race locked up because of his minority support.
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