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Saturday, November 23, 2013

Iran and China/Japan

Today has brought agreement in the talks in Switzerland with Iran and some bad developments in the dispute between China and Japan over some uninhabited islands.

Let's start with Iran.  We are told there is an agreement but not what the terms of that agreement are.  We will learn those terms shortly, but I predict that it will be a significant loosening of sanctions against Iran in exchange for mostly unverifiable promises from the Iranians to stop just short of getting nukes.  You know, Iran will move to the point where it is a few weeks away from having a bomb, and Obama will tell us what a great victory this is for peace.  Then, at some point in a few years, Iran will explode a nuclear weapon and tell us that it now has fifteen of them.  The world will just have to deal with a nuclear armed Iran if Obama's plan goes ahead.  I wonder if Israel and the Saudis will accept this.

Then there is China.  It announced today that it has created a defense zone that includes certain Japanese islands which are uninhabited.  If things go in the usual manner, the Obama administration will tell the Chinese that we consider the islands to be part of Japan and covered by our mutual defense treaty with the Japanese.  Then, after a few months, Obama will send Kerry to Beijing to negotiate a resolution which consists of giving the islands to China.  We did it with Iran, so why not do it again with China?




 

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