President Obama was elected president on the votes of African Americans, Hispanics, young voters, Jews, secularists and women. By 2012, when he ran for re-election, Obama's support had declined among some of these groups, but they still voted strongly for him. Now, however, just a year later, it looks like this coalition may be splintering.
Let's look first at young voters. These are the people who are most strongly hurt by Obamacare. This group included most of the people who went without health insurance by choice. Now, they are all required to get that insurance, and it has to have all the bells and whistles that Obama thought was necessary for a proper policy. Single 25 year old guys now have to buy policies with maternity coverage. Women of 26 pay for policies that provide free mammograms even though these tests are not recommended for women under 40. As a result, the costs of the policies are very high, way more expensive than the policies previously available to this group (which many of them did not even bother to buy.) On top of the impact of Obamacare, we also have the problem that many of these voters still cannot find good jobs and that they see no prospect in the short term of that fact changing.
Then you have Jewish voters. In the years between 2008 and 2012, this was the group within the Obama coalition where the president lost the most support. Even so, he handily carried this group last year. Now, however, Obama is taking actions which may lead to Iran getting nuclear weapons, a step which would put Israel in mortal danger. On top of that, there is the constant drumbeat of anti-Israeli statements and actions coming from the Obama White House. One or two statements will not make a difference, but the constant refrain coming from Obamaland is going to harm the standing of the Democrats with Jewish voters in the longer term.
Another important group here are the Hispanics. These folks voted about three to one for Obama in 2012. They are also the fastest growing segment of the electorate. The problem here for the Democrats, however, is that a 3 to 1 split is almost impossible to maintain; there will likely be some movement back to the center. More important, however, in the next presidential race we may see the first Hispanic candidate for president or vice president, most likely Marco Rubio or Ted Cruz, both Republicans. The presence of one of them on the ballot could easily change the trajectory of this voting bloc. If the Republican wins, it could make the move by Hispanics toward the GOP a long lasting one.
Even among blacks, there is likely to be a decline in the margin won by the Democrats. After all, it would be impossible for that margin to improve, and if the next candidate is no longer the first black president, one big incentive for voting Democrat would be gone.
It will be interesting to watch all this develop.
Let's look first at young voters. These are the people who are most strongly hurt by Obamacare. This group included most of the people who went without health insurance by choice. Now, they are all required to get that insurance, and it has to have all the bells and whistles that Obama thought was necessary for a proper policy. Single 25 year old guys now have to buy policies with maternity coverage. Women of 26 pay for policies that provide free mammograms even though these tests are not recommended for women under 40. As a result, the costs of the policies are very high, way more expensive than the policies previously available to this group (which many of them did not even bother to buy.) On top of the impact of Obamacare, we also have the problem that many of these voters still cannot find good jobs and that they see no prospect in the short term of that fact changing.
Then you have Jewish voters. In the years between 2008 and 2012, this was the group within the Obama coalition where the president lost the most support. Even so, he handily carried this group last year. Now, however, Obama is taking actions which may lead to Iran getting nuclear weapons, a step which would put Israel in mortal danger. On top of that, there is the constant drumbeat of anti-Israeli statements and actions coming from the Obama White House. One or two statements will not make a difference, but the constant refrain coming from Obamaland is going to harm the standing of the Democrats with Jewish voters in the longer term.
Another important group here are the Hispanics. These folks voted about three to one for Obama in 2012. They are also the fastest growing segment of the electorate. The problem here for the Democrats, however, is that a 3 to 1 split is almost impossible to maintain; there will likely be some movement back to the center. More important, however, in the next presidential race we may see the first Hispanic candidate for president or vice president, most likely Marco Rubio or Ted Cruz, both Republicans. The presence of one of them on the ballot could easily change the trajectory of this voting bloc. If the Republican wins, it could make the move by Hispanics toward the GOP a long lasting one.
Even among blacks, there is likely to be a decline in the margin won by the Democrats. After all, it would be impossible for that margin to improve, and if the next candidate is no longer the first black president, one big incentive for voting Democrat would be gone.
It will be interesting to watch all this develop.
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