There's an old movie called "The Gang That Couldn't Shoot Straight". I think that there is a remake under way now to be called "The Gang That Couldn't Talk Straight." It will star president Obama, John Kerry and the current American foreign policy establishment. The subject came to mind when I read the comments of a high Saudi government official in a British newspaper. Here is the key language:
"We were lied to, things were hidden from us. The problem is not with the deal struck in Geneva but how it was done."
Think about that for a moment. The most important Arab nation in the world to America is Saudi Arabia, not Iraq and not Egypt. The Saudis still supply much more of the world's international exports by far than any other nation. The Saudis hold in their hands the world's only large oil supply that can be manipulated for political reasons without major internal costs. Were Venezuela to cut its oil production for political reasons, the Venezuelan people would pay an immediate and severe price. The same is true in each of the other major oil producers other than Saudi Arabia. If, on the other hand, the Saudis cut oil output in half, the rest of the world would start stumbling almost immediately while the Saudis would be coasting along on their reserves. In short, the Saudis are a nation whose friendship is essential to American interests.
For many decades, American administrations have gone out of their way to cement the friendship with the Saudis. To the Saudi royal family, respect is of paramount importance. America did not need to always agree with the Saudi position, but we had to respect it and them. A public humiliation of the Saudis was unthinkable. Of course, that is until now. Now, the Saudis tell us and are telling the world that America lied to them, tricked them and generally disrespected them. It is not the equivalent of America going to war against the Saudis, but for the Saudi royal family, it is about the closest America could come to taking that step. Sadly, Obama, Kerry and the State Department well know the Saudi need for respect, but they not only ignored it, they actually lied to the Saudis. One wonders if Obama told the Saudis six months ago that if they liked the Iran policy, they could keep it.
It is hard to know exactly how the Saudis will react to the current debacle in American policy. Most likely, the Saudis will find another strong country or countries with which to ally. The nominal friendship with America will not vanish immediately, but in the councils in the Saudi capital, there will be a debate about whether to chose to cozy up to Russia or China, the two obvious choices. There is even the bizarre possibility that the Saudis will form a silent alliance with Israel directed against the Iranians. The Saudis will also most likely make a move to obtain their own nuclear force. They will never believe any American promise to include the Saudis under the nuclear umbrella of the USA. The net effect of all this will be further nuclear proliferation and a major reduction in American influence across the Middle East.
Right now, many are saying that the deal with Iran was reached in order to distract the American public from Obamacare. Hearing the Saudi complaints, however, I doubt that the deal was such a last minute public relations move. Instead, it seems to be a long term horrible mistake that came from a foreign policy braintrust (I use that term loosely) that has no idea how to recognize America's long term interests and certainly does not know how to protect those interests.
"We were lied to, things were hidden from us. The problem is not with the deal struck in Geneva but how it was done."
Think about that for a moment. The most important Arab nation in the world to America is Saudi Arabia, not Iraq and not Egypt. The Saudis still supply much more of the world's international exports by far than any other nation. The Saudis hold in their hands the world's only large oil supply that can be manipulated for political reasons without major internal costs. Were Venezuela to cut its oil production for political reasons, the Venezuelan people would pay an immediate and severe price. The same is true in each of the other major oil producers other than Saudi Arabia. If, on the other hand, the Saudis cut oil output in half, the rest of the world would start stumbling almost immediately while the Saudis would be coasting along on their reserves. In short, the Saudis are a nation whose friendship is essential to American interests.
For many decades, American administrations have gone out of their way to cement the friendship with the Saudis. To the Saudi royal family, respect is of paramount importance. America did not need to always agree with the Saudi position, but we had to respect it and them. A public humiliation of the Saudis was unthinkable. Of course, that is until now. Now, the Saudis tell us and are telling the world that America lied to them, tricked them and generally disrespected them. It is not the equivalent of America going to war against the Saudis, but for the Saudi royal family, it is about the closest America could come to taking that step. Sadly, Obama, Kerry and the State Department well know the Saudi need for respect, but they not only ignored it, they actually lied to the Saudis. One wonders if Obama told the Saudis six months ago that if they liked the Iran policy, they could keep it.
It is hard to know exactly how the Saudis will react to the current debacle in American policy. Most likely, the Saudis will find another strong country or countries with which to ally. The nominal friendship with America will not vanish immediately, but in the councils in the Saudi capital, there will be a debate about whether to chose to cozy up to Russia or China, the two obvious choices. There is even the bizarre possibility that the Saudis will form a silent alliance with Israel directed against the Iranians. The Saudis will also most likely make a move to obtain their own nuclear force. They will never believe any American promise to include the Saudis under the nuclear umbrella of the USA. The net effect of all this will be further nuclear proliferation and a major reduction in American influence across the Middle East.
Right now, many are saying that the deal with Iran was reached in order to distract the American public from Obamacare. Hearing the Saudi complaints, however, I doubt that the deal was such a last minute public relations move. Instead, it seems to be a long term horrible mistake that came from a foreign policy braintrust (I use that term loosely) that has no idea how to recognize America's long term interests and certainly does not know how to protect those interests.
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