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Wednesday, November 13, 2013

Well Now We Know

The Obama administration finally released the number of folks who signed up for health insurance through the Obamacare exchanges in October.  Even after all the coverage about the disaster at the exchanges, the numbers were worse than expected.  Here are the key bits of information taken from the NBC report of the government statement:

1.  Only 26,794 people signed up at the federal exchange that covers two thirds of the states.  That is less than 900 people per day on average.  Even worse, this figure includes both folks who actually bought insurance as well as those who looked at plans, made a tentative selection and then left the site before making a purchase.  To put this in context, in order just to sign up the 7 million new folks that is the stated goal of the administration, the federal exchange has to sell just over 26,000 policies each day between October 1 and March 30.  In addition, though, the federal site would need to sell another 15,000 policies each day in order to let folks whose individual policies were cancelled get new coverage.  In other words, through the month of October, even with the inflated numbers that count folks who did not really buy policies, fewer people bought insurance than ought to have bought on the first day.

2.  On the state exchanges, October saw 79,391 policies "sold" (using the same faulty definition of what "sold" means.)  Since these exchanges actually worked, the number here is probably a better indicator of the success or failure of the program.  The states sold 2646 policies per day during October.  They needed to sell 13,000 per day to meet the goal for new coverage and another 7500 to let folks with cancelled policies replace them.  In other words, even on the state exchanges which were actually working, there were less than 13% of number of policies sold to meet the minimum requirements of Obamacare.

3.  During October, just under 400,000 people got Medicaid or Schip coverage for free from the government.  Even on that basis Obamacare has failed.  The Congressional Budget Office estimated that there would be 9 million additional people getting free healthcare through Medicaid by the end of the sign up period.  There should have been 1.5 million people who signed up in October just to meet that projection.

While the government has not given out November figures yet, other reports indicate that the first two weeks of this month have not seen any increase in the rate of policy sales or Medicaid signups.  In other words, Obamacare is crashing and burning.  The only thing it seems to have accomplished is to force the cancellation of millions of policies.



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