I was reading an article this morning talking about the political impact of rising crime rates. It got me to thinking; is crime really rising? Over the last 50 years there have been two long term trends in the rate of crimes: from 1960 to 1990, the general rate of crime went up and up and up. Since 1990, the general trend has been for the rate of crime to fall year after year. Has that trend really reversed?
First, it depends what constitutes "crime". This is no Clintonian discourse on the meaning of "is". There really is a difference depending on what is included as a "crime". Let me explain. One category that has fallen dramatically in recent years is car theft. This may well be part of the general trend towards lower crime rates, but it is also the result of the many anti-theft devices built into cars and the various electronic locators that are now present in a great many cars. The anti-theft devices like locked steering columns (without the key) or car alarms dissuade the thieves who are acting on the spur of the moment. The lojack or On-Star or other locator devices dissuade the thieves who plan ahead; there is no reason to steal a car if the police can find it with a few clicks of a computer. So there's been a drop in car theft; if we count that among the crime that we are measuring, there will be a major reduction in the crime rate as a result. On the other hand, if we focus only on violent crimes, none of the distortions by better anti-crime technology will have much of an impact.
Looking at violent crimes, it does appear that the trend has reversed, at least in some areas. Big city murder rates have risen in almost every American urban center. Chicago has had some of the highest numbers of murders in decades. In Baltimore, there have been more killings so far this year than in all of last year. Similar numbers are being turned in across the country.
So why is this happening? Theories abound. Some focus on economic factors. With unemployment high, the disadvantaged youths are turning to crime, or so we are told by some sociologists. This, of course, is complete nonsense. At the moment, unemployment is lower than it has been at any time in the last seven years (or so the government statistics say). During the years of higher unemployment, violent crime was lower. There is no reason why crime should rise as unemployment falls. Some theories have focused on toxins in the environment (no I am not kidding). Under this view, the high crime rates that existed in the 1980s and 1990s were the result of lead based paint being eaten by small children who then grew up to be more violent as a result of low level lead poisoning. Of course, there is no reason to believe that lead based paint is making a comeback. Some theories point to the lack of fathers in many households as the reason for rising crime. This too does not seem to explain the recent rise. The rise of families headed by single women came simultaneously with a long term decline in crime; there is no reason why that should change now.
One big difference has been a change in the attitude towards the police. We have all seen the media circuses that surrounded the killing in Ferguson, Missouri and in Baltimore for example. Police have been vilified and the result has been a much more hesitant style of police work. Is this the reason for the rise in violent crime? Is it just easier to get away with it now? It is still too soon to tell, but at least this is a possibility.
No matter the reason for the rise in violent crime, this is a big problem. It affects the lives of millions of Americans even if they are not victims of crimes. Something needs to be done to stop it.
First, it depends what constitutes "crime". This is no Clintonian discourse on the meaning of "is". There really is a difference depending on what is included as a "crime". Let me explain. One category that has fallen dramatically in recent years is car theft. This may well be part of the general trend towards lower crime rates, but it is also the result of the many anti-theft devices built into cars and the various electronic locators that are now present in a great many cars. The anti-theft devices like locked steering columns (without the key) or car alarms dissuade the thieves who are acting on the spur of the moment. The lojack or On-Star or other locator devices dissuade the thieves who plan ahead; there is no reason to steal a car if the police can find it with a few clicks of a computer. So there's been a drop in car theft; if we count that among the crime that we are measuring, there will be a major reduction in the crime rate as a result. On the other hand, if we focus only on violent crimes, none of the distortions by better anti-crime technology will have much of an impact.
Looking at violent crimes, it does appear that the trend has reversed, at least in some areas. Big city murder rates have risen in almost every American urban center. Chicago has had some of the highest numbers of murders in decades. In Baltimore, there have been more killings so far this year than in all of last year. Similar numbers are being turned in across the country.
So why is this happening? Theories abound. Some focus on economic factors. With unemployment high, the disadvantaged youths are turning to crime, or so we are told by some sociologists. This, of course, is complete nonsense. At the moment, unemployment is lower than it has been at any time in the last seven years (or so the government statistics say). During the years of higher unemployment, violent crime was lower. There is no reason why crime should rise as unemployment falls. Some theories have focused on toxins in the environment (no I am not kidding). Under this view, the high crime rates that existed in the 1980s and 1990s were the result of lead based paint being eaten by small children who then grew up to be more violent as a result of low level lead poisoning. Of course, there is no reason to believe that lead based paint is making a comeback. Some theories point to the lack of fathers in many households as the reason for rising crime. This too does not seem to explain the recent rise. The rise of families headed by single women came simultaneously with a long term decline in crime; there is no reason why that should change now.
One big difference has been a change in the attitude towards the police. We have all seen the media circuses that surrounded the killing in Ferguson, Missouri and in Baltimore for example. Police have been vilified and the result has been a much more hesitant style of police work. Is this the reason for the rise in violent crime? Is it just easier to get away with it now? It is still too soon to tell, but at least this is a possibility.
No matter the reason for the rise in violent crime, this is a big problem. It affects the lives of millions of Americans even if they are not victims of crimes. Something needs to be done to stop it.
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