For the last four years, the Assad regime in Syria has been propped up with material support from Iran, Hezbollah and Russia. Only the Syrians and Hezbollah, however, had regular troops on the battlefield. Hezbollah has supposedly lost over 2500 troops in the fighting, a major loss for a terror group that only had about 15,000 fighters to begin with. Losing one fighter in six and seeing many more wounded has been a disaster for Hezbollah. Even so, the Assad forces have been crumbling in recent weeks. The four year grind of constant battles has left the Alawaite forces of Assad near collapse. That is why Assad's allies have adopted a new stance in the fighting. First the Russians sent in at least 1000 troops who are now said to be engaging the rebels in battle. Then the Iranians sent in regular troops to join the fight according to today's news reports from Syria.
Just think what this means. Iran now thinks so little of the Obama administration that it is willing to put troops on the ground in Syria over US opposition. If the Iranian troops get close to the Israeli border with Syria, you can be sure that tensions will be extremely high. It would not take much for fighting to break out between the Iranians and the Israelis. Indeed, that may be the plan of the mullahs back in Iran. They may reason that if the Iranian troops are fighting with Israel, the other Moslem countries will have to move towards supporting Iran in the battle. In many ways, it is a variant of the strategy that the Iraqi Saddam Hussein used in the Gulf war when Iraq was getting crushed. Saddam Hussein launched scud missile attacks on Israel even though the Israelis were not involved in the fighting. Saddam Hussein hoped that by attacking Israel, he could break up the coalition fighting against him and perhaps even lure some Arab countries into supporting him. It did not work for the Iraqis then, and it is unlikely to work for Iran now. Nevertheless, it does show just how dire is the situation in which Assad now finds himself.
Oh, and the American response? So far, there has been none. No surprise there. Leading from behind has changed. Obama is now following a doctrine I like to call "Leading while unconscious."
Just think what this means. Iran now thinks so little of the Obama administration that it is willing to put troops on the ground in Syria over US opposition. If the Iranian troops get close to the Israeli border with Syria, you can be sure that tensions will be extremely high. It would not take much for fighting to break out between the Iranians and the Israelis. Indeed, that may be the plan of the mullahs back in Iran. They may reason that if the Iranian troops are fighting with Israel, the other Moslem countries will have to move towards supporting Iran in the battle. In many ways, it is a variant of the strategy that the Iraqi Saddam Hussein used in the Gulf war when Iraq was getting crushed. Saddam Hussein launched scud missile attacks on Israel even though the Israelis were not involved in the fighting. Saddam Hussein hoped that by attacking Israel, he could break up the coalition fighting against him and perhaps even lure some Arab countries into supporting him. It did not work for the Iraqis then, and it is unlikely to work for Iran now. Nevertheless, it does show just how dire is the situation in which Assad now finds himself.
Oh, and the American response? So far, there has been none. No surprise there. Leading from behind has changed. Obama is now following a doctrine I like to call "Leading while unconscious."
No comments:
Post a Comment