There was a poll released yesterday by Survey USA that asked respondents about their positions in the 2016 presidential race. The headline from the poll is that Donald Trump beat every Democrat in a head to head contest. The Democrats tested were Clinton, Biden, Sanders and Al Gore. Trump led Clinton by 45% to 40%. This latest horse race poll is interesting, but the real news is inside the polling data. Here are the key points:
1. Among Hispanic voters, Hillary beats Trump by 50% to 31% with 19% undecided. That means that after all the relentless coverage of Trump as anti-Hispanic that grew out of his announcement speech, there are still 31% of Hispanics who support him. With 19% still undecided, Trump has ample room to grow his support.
2. Among African American voters, Hillary beats Trump by 59% to 25%. This is a killer for Hillary. President Obama got over 95% of the black vote. If Hillary gets every undecided voter and collects only 75% of the black vote, she would almost certainly lose the election. No Republican has gotten 25% of the black vote in a presidential election since Richard Nixon in 1960.
Sadly, the poll only tested Trump as the GOP nominee. We cannot tell right now if these figures are the result of the attractiveness of Trump or the loss of appeal of Hillary Clinton. Either way, if they stay this way, they are quite a political earthquake.
1. Among Hispanic voters, Hillary beats Trump by 50% to 31% with 19% undecided. That means that after all the relentless coverage of Trump as anti-Hispanic that grew out of his announcement speech, there are still 31% of Hispanics who support him. With 19% still undecided, Trump has ample room to grow his support.
2. Among African American voters, Hillary beats Trump by 59% to 25%. This is a killer for Hillary. President Obama got over 95% of the black vote. If Hillary gets every undecided voter and collects only 75% of the black vote, she would almost certainly lose the election. No Republican has gotten 25% of the black vote in a presidential election since Richard Nixon in 1960.
Sadly, the poll only tested Trump as the GOP nominee. We cannot tell right now if these figures are the result of the attractiveness of Trump or the loss of appeal of Hillary Clinton. Either way, if they stay this way, they are quite a political earthquake.
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