There has been a major development in Syria this week; Russian troops are now fighting alongside those of Iran, Hezbollah and the Assad regime in the civil war. Here is how Reuters reports the development:
Russian forces have begun participating in military operations in Syria in support of government troops, three Lebanese sources familiar with the political and military situation there said on Wednesday.
The sources, speaking to Reuters on condition they not be identified, gave the most forthright account yet from the region of what U.S. officials say appears to be a new military buildup by Moscow, one of President Bashar al-Assad's main allies, though one of the sources said the numbers of Russians involved so far were small.
This is an enormous development. The Assad forces have been crumbling in recent weeks and it had started to look like the civil war might be coming to an end. That would have left the Sunnis opposed to ISIS in control of about one third of the country and ISIS in control of the other third. It would also have meant that coalition forces in both Syria and Iraq could have focused on ISIS and destroyed that group with a major effort. Instead, the Russian intervention means that Assad's forces will be propped up, the non-ISIS Sunni forces will still have to fight on two fronts, and the killing and destruction will just keep going.
The big question right now is just how many Russian troops will land in Syria. Putin put tens of thousands into Ukraine while claiming that there were none there. He could easily do the same in Syria, although the supply lines would be much longer. A force of 20,000 Russians with their modern weapons could probably dispatch what is left of the Free Syrian Army (the group that the US sort of backs). These new troops would give hope and new resolve to the remaining troops loyal to Assad. We could actually see an Assad victory with Russia's help.
The magnitude of the disaster resulting from a victory for Assad is hard to overstate. Here are just a few of the consequences:
1. Russia would have gained a client state in the Arab world, something the Russians have not had since Soviet troops were ousted from Egypt more than 30 years ago. These Russian troops would give Syria Hezbollah and Iran protection from Israeli attack just by being there. Israel would know that it might face Russian forces were it to try to stop Hezbollah attacks across the border from Lebanon and Syria.
2. Iran would be emboldened. It would keep its colony in Sunni Syria. It would straddle Iraq with its forces and pretty much force the Iraqis into the Iranian orbit.
3. The possibility of Lebanon overthrowing the Hezbollah controlled government would be out the window. The Russians would see to that.
4. The other Sunni states of the Middle East (like the Saudis and the Egyptians) would see the contrast between the Russians who help their allies and the Americans who abandon theirs. Decades of diplomatic and military efforts by the USA in the region would be destroyed.
There are counter measures that the USA could take right now, but it is highly unlikely that president Obama will even choose to confront the Russians while they still have only a very small force group in the region. Here are just a few policy choices:
A. We could encourage the local Sunni forces to launch attacks on the Russian bases. In fact, we could provide the arms to the local Sunnis so that they could inflict maximum damage on the Russian forces. This can be done is such a way as to keep the ability to deny that we are doing that. Ongoing heavy Russian casualties might reduce Putin's desire to stay in Syria. (A similar strategy ultimately got the USSR to leave Afghanistan.)
B. We could encourage Turkey to close the Bosporous to naval ships and other ships carrying military supplies and also to close its airspace to planes carrying supplies to Assad. That would make the Russian effort to resupply its forces much more difficult. If we can also get Bulgaria and Greece to close their airspace to such flights, the Russians would be limited to just planes flying over Iran and Iraq. We the Kurds then armed with antiaircraft missiles, that corridor could likewise be shut.
C. We could impose severe economic sanctions on Russia for helping Assad. We have the ability to really hurt Russia's economy, and we ought to use it.
There are more choices, but since Obama won't do any of them, there is really no point in listing them.
Russian forces have begun participating in military operations in Syria in support of government troops, three Lebanese sources familiar with the political and military situation there said on Wednesday.
The sources, speaking to Reuters on condition they not be identified, gave the most forthright account yet from the region of what U.S. officials say appears to be a new military buildup by Moscow, one of President Bashar al-Assad's main allies, though one of the sources said the numbers of Russians involved so far were small.
This is an enormous development. The Assad forces have been crumbling in recent weeks and it had started to look like the civil war might be coming to an end. That would have left the Sunnis opposed to ISIS in control of about one third of the country and ISIS in control of the other third. It would also have meant that coalition forces in both Syria and Iraq could have focused on ISIS and destroyed that group with a major effort. Instead, the Russian intervention means that Assad's forces will be propped up, the non-ISIS Sunni forces will still have to fight on two fronts, and the killing and destruction will just keep going.
The big question right now is just how many Russian troops will land in Syria. Putin put tens of thousands into Ukraine while claiming that there were none there. He could easily do the same in Syria, although the supply lines would be much longer. A force of 20,000 Russians with their modern weapons could probably dispatch what is left of the Free Syrian Army (the group that the US sort of backs). These new troops would give hope and new resolve to the remaining troops loyal to Assad. We could actually see an Assad victory with Russia's help.
The magnitude of the disaster resulting from a victory for Assad is hard to overstate. Here are just a few of the consequences:
1. Russia would have gained a client state in the Arab world, something the Russians have not had since Soviet troops were ousted from Egypt more than 30 years ago. These Russian troops would give Syria Hezbollah and Iran protection from Israeli attack just by being there. Israel would know that it might face Russian forces were it to try to stop Hezbollah attacks across the border from Lebanon and Syria.
2. Iran would be emboldened. It would keep its colony in Sunni Syria. It would straddle Iraq with its forces and pretty much force the Iraqis into the Iranian orbit.
3. The possibility of Lebanon overthrowing the Hezbollah controlled government would be out the window. The Russians would see to that.
4. The other Sunni states of the Middle East (like the Saudis and the Egyptians) would see the contrast between the Russians who help their allies and the Americans who abandon theirs. Decades of diplomatic and military efforts by the USA in the region would be destroyed.
There are counter measures that the USA could take right now, but it is highly unlikely that president Obama will even choose to confront the Russians while they still have only a very small force group in the region. Here are just a few policy choices:
A. We could encourage the local Sunni forces to launch attacks on the Russian bases. In fact, we could provide the arms to the local Sunnis so that they could inflict maximum damage on the Russian forces. This can be done is such a way as to keep the ability to deny that we are doing that. Ongoing heavy Russian casualties might reduce Putin's desire to stay in Syria. (A similar strategy ultimately got the USSR to leave Afghanistan.)
B. We could encourage Turkey to close the Bosporous to naval ships and other ships carrying military supplies and also to close its airspace to planes carrying supplies to Assad. That would make the Russian effort to resupply its forces much more difficult. If we can also get Bulgaria and Greece to close their airspace to such flights, the Russians would be limited to just planes flying over Iran and Iraq. We the Kurds then armed with antiaircraft missiles, that corridor could likewise be shut.
C. We could impose severe economic sanctions on Russia for helping Assad. We have the ability to really hurt Russia's economy, and we ought to use it.
There are more choices, but since Obama won't do any of them, there is really no point in listing them.
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